English Premier League Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Games for November 24, 2024

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		GoalsTotal
Goals		Best
O/U

Bet Value

We use three different graphics to describe Bet Value within a matchup.

More on Bet Value
More Details
Liverpool
Southampton 		73.6%
10.4%		16.0%
-351
+1000
-380
+1025
2.47
0.82		3.29
o3¼-107
u3½-130
o3½+110
u3½-130
Manchester United
Ipswich Town 		55.5%
20.7%		23.8%
-157
+425
-165
+435
1.72
0.95		2.67
o3-114
u3+108
o3-110
u3+100
Games for Nov 23, 2024
Games for Nov 25, 2024

Completed Games

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		Final
Goals		Sportsbook
Log Loss		DRatings
Log Loss
Chelsea
Brighton and Hove Albion		37.0%
34.3%		28.8%
+105
+244
+102
+235
2
1		-0.73432-0.74573-0.99550
Manchester City
Tottenham		55.4%
21.8%		22.8%
-251
+580
-280
+600
2
0		-0.35358-0.34432-0.59074
Liverpool
Aston Villa		53.7%
22.6%		23.7%
-126
+296
-128
+280
3
3		-1.56170-1.56715-1.43881
Arsenal
Manchester United		44.0%
29.6%		26.5%
-330
+825
-340
+860
1
0		-0.29600-0.28696-0.82194
Chelsea
Nottingham Forest		58.4%
17.9%		23.6%
-115
+323
-120
+292
3
2		-0.64078-0.65547-0.53739
Crystal Palace
Wolverhampton		32.8%
37.6%		29.6%
+128
+229
+135
+227
3
1		-0.84889-0.86736-1.11599
Brighton and Hove Albion
Newcastle United		24.5%
50.0%		25.5%
+415
-166
+400
-170
1
1		-1.59484-1.60589-1.36602
Brentford
Bournemouth		28.7%
44.1%		27.2%
+227
+113
+234
+110
2
1		-1.21100-1.23433-1.24855
Luton Town
West Ham United		8.0%
77.2%		14.8%
+286
-115
+265
-115
1
3		-0.65454-0.66890-0.25925
Burnley
Tottenham		9.7%
74.5%		15.9%
+750
-311
+680
-310
1
2		-0.30661-0.32294-0.29464
Sheffield United
Everton		12.2%
68.6%		19.3%
+615
-227
+634
-240
0
1		-0.39469-0.38396-0.37750
Manchester City
Fulham		75.6%
8.9%		15.5%
-406
+1175
-457
+1250
4
0		-0.23422-0.23460-0.27957
Manchester United
Crystal Palace		35.0%
36.2%		28.8%
+258
+102
+260
+110
0
4		-0.73027-0.75226-1.01680
Tottenham
Liverpool		16.6%
63.3%		20.1%
+515
-227
+515
-245
2
4		-0.39525-0.38505-0.45800
Aston Villa
Brighton and Hove Albion		25.0%
49.5%		25.5%
+170
+150
+165
+170
0
1		-0.94595-0.99937-0.70298
West Ham United
Chelsea		14.6%
65.1%		20.3%
+475
-193
+450
-170
0
5		-0.44690-0.47681-0.42984
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Season Prediction Results

 GamesRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks72-3-2 (0.429)0-1.18652 
Sportsbooks72-3-2 (0.429)0-1.18702 
DRatings73-2-2 (0.571)0-1.21848
-0.03196
-0.03146

Season Simulation

*Through all games played on or before 11/10/24
#TeamWLTPtsWin PLChamps LeagueEuropa LeagueRelegation
1Liverpool (9-1-1, 28 pts)24.36.57.280.252.6%98.5%0.8%0.0%
2Manchester City (7-2-2, 23 pts)23.66.67.878.640.9%98.5%1.0%0.0%
3Chelsea (5-2-4, 19 pts)17.49.411.263.40.9%47.8%19.1%0.0%
4Arsenal (5-2-4, 19 pts)19.58.010.569.15.0%79.9%9.3%0.0%
5Nottingham Forest (5-2-4, 19 pts)12.714.211.249.20.0%1.2%1.8%2.2%
6Brighton and Hove Albion (5-2-4, 19 pts)16.010.611.459.40.2%19.5%15.1%0.0%
7Fulham (5-3-3, 18 pts)13.713.810.451.70.0%4.2%4.4%2.0%
8Newcastle United (5-3-3, 18 pts)15.112.210.656.00.1%8.8%10.7%0.3%
9Aston Villa (5-3-3, 18 pts)15.312.010.656.60.0%11.1%9.2%0.0%
10Tottenham (5-5-1, 16 pts)16.912.88.459.00.3%20.5%16.2%0.0%
11Brentford (5-5-1, 16 pts)12.816.88.446.90.0%0.5%1.3%4.8%
12Manchester United (4-4-3, 15 pts)14.912.710.455.10.0%8.9%9.2%0.4%
13Bournemouth (4-4-3, 15 pts)11.915.610.546.10.0%0.4%1.3%6.8%
14West Ham United (3-5-3, 12 pts)11.116.310.543.90.0%0.1%0.2%12.1%
15Everton (2-5-4, 10 pts)9.717.011.240.40.0%0.0%0.2%25.6%
16Leicester City (2-5-4, 10 pts)9.317.611.238.90.0%0.0%0.1%33.6%
17Ipswich Town (1-5-5, 8 pts)7.518.611.934.40.0%0.0%0.0%63.7%
18Crystal Palace (1-6-4, 7 pts)9.417.011.539.80.0%0.1%0.0%27.5%
19Wolverhampton (1-7-3, 6 pts)8.918.510.537.30.0%0.0%0.1%43.9%
20Southampton (1-9-1, 4 pts)7.921.88.232.10.0%0.0%0.0%77.1%

Predictions Methodology

The English Premier League projections are based on our proprietary algorithm which we use to project out soccer matches. The EPL is a twenty team league which plays 38 games through out the season. Currently, the top four teams receive a draw to the Champions League and the fifth place team receives a draw to Europa League. Each year, the 18th through 20th placed team gets relegated to the English Championship division.