Ajax at NEC Nijmegen

Updated

Ajax

82.6%11.8%5.5%
Ajax WinDrawWin
2.80Projected Goals 0.60
1Final Score 1

NEC Nijmegen

Last 5 Games

Ajax
Money Line
T 3-3 at Emmen-380
T 2-2 vs Vitesse-700
L 2-1 vs PSV Eindhoven-110
W 4-1 at RKC Waalwijk-350
W 1-7 vs Excelsior-1600
NEC Nijmegen
Money Line
W 1-6 vs RKC Waalwijk+115
W 1-0 at Cambuur+165
L 0-3 at PSV Eindhoven+1000
T 3-3 vs Go Ahead Eagles+100
L 0-2 at Sparta Rotterdam+200

Money Line Analysis

Implied Margin

Using the best lines from multiple sportsbooks, this would be the % take from the consensus sportsbook if bets were even on each side.

More on Implied Margin
:3.0%

Implied Margin

Using the best lines from multiple sportsbooks, this would be the % take from the consensus sportsbook if bets were even on each side.

More on Implied Margin
:4.9%
 Open LineHeritageBovadaBetOnline5DimesSportsBettingBest Line

No-Vig Odds

Using a market maker sportsbook, this is what the line would be if there was no vigorish (sportsbook fee) in the price.

More on No-Vig Odds
Ajax-275-179-180-190-179-190-179-164.5
NEC Nijmegen+625+465+420+450+463+450+465+480.7
Draw+400+352+330+370+371+370+371+385.8
 Open LineSouth PointCircaCaesarsStationsWestgateBest Line

No-Vig Odds

Using a market maker sportsbook, this is what the line would be if there was no vigorish (sportsbook fee) in the price.

More on No-Vig Odds
Ajax-255-----225-225-164.5
NEC Nijmegen+625----+530+530+480.7
Draw+415----+400+400+385.8

Overall

Bet Value Inactive
Ajax: 30.0%
Bet Value Inactive
NEC Nijmegen: 0.0%

Base Rating

Our analytical projection of the match in relation to the implied probability to win from the sportsbooks.

More on Base Rating

Ajax: 40.0%
NEC Nijmegen: 0.0%

Bet Trends

Doing an analysis on the betting data, we project which team has which team has an edge.

More on Bet Trends

Ajax: 0.0%

Sharp Line

Our proprietary formula predicting which direction the line will move.

More on Sharp Line

Ajax: 0.0%
NEC Nijmegen: 0.0%

Latest ML

Steam Move

A quick and uniform line move across every sportsbook. Usually caused by an injury or deep-pocketed sharp bettor.

More on Steam Move

Ajax ML moved from -254 to -262
NEC Nijmegen ML moved from +471 to +463

Overall

Bet Value Inactive
Ajax: 0.0%
Bet Value Inactive
NEC Nijmegen: 10.0%

Base Rating

Our analytical projection of the match in relation to the implied probability to win from the sportsbooks.

More on Base Rating

Ajax: 40.0%
NEC Nijmegen: 0.0%

Bet Trends

Doing an analysis on the betting data, we project which team has which team has an edge.

More on Bet Trends

Ajax: 0.0%

Sharp Line

Our proprietary formula predicting which direction the line will move.

More on Sharp Line

Ajax: 0.0%
NEC Nijmegen: 40.0%

Latest ML

Steam Move

A quick and uniform line move across every sportsbook. Usually caused by an injury or deep-pocketed sharp bettor.

More on Steam Move

Ajax ML moved from -260 to -270
NEC Nijmegen ML moved from +560 to +530

Over/Under Analysis

Implied Margin

Using the best lines from multiple sportsbooks, this would be the % take from the consensus sportsbook if bets were even on each side.

More on Implied Margin
:2.1%
 Open LineHeritageBovadaBetOnline5DimesSportsBettingBest Line

No-Vig Odds

Using a market maker sportsbook, this is what the line would be if there was no vigorish (sportsbook fee) in the price.

More on No-Vig Odds
Overo3¼+105o3-107o3-118o3-113-o3-113o3-107o3-100
Underu3¼-125u3-111u3-102u3-107-u3-107u3-102u3+100
 Open LineSouth PointCircaCaesarsStationsWestgateBest Line

No-Vig Odds

Using a market maker sportsbook, this is what the line would be if there was no vigorish (sportsbook fee) in the price.

More on No-Vig Odds
Over-----o3-100
Under-----u3+100

Overall

Bet Value Inactive
Over: 10.0%
Bet Value Inactive
Under: 0.0%

Base Rating

Our analytical projection of the match in relation to the implied probability to win from the sportsbooks.

More on Base Rating

Over: 10.0%
Under: 0.0%

Bet Trends

Doing an analysis on the betting data, we project which team has which team has an edge.

More on Bet Trends

Over: 0.0%

Sharp Line

Our proprietary formula predicting which direction the line will move.

More on Sharp Line

Over: 0.0%
Under: 0.0%

Latest O/U

Steam Move

A quick and uniform line move across every sportsbook. Usually caused by an injury or deep-pocketed sharp bettor.

More on Steam Move

No Steam Moves On Over
No Steam Moves On Under

Goal Props

Both Teams to Score
Yes42.5%
 
No57.5%

Total Goals

0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
Exact Goals Scored - Overall
Exactly 03.34%
Exactly 219.30%
Exactly 418.58%
Exactly 67.15%
Exactly 81.48%
Exactly 100.19%
 
Exactly 111.36%
Exactly 321.86%
Exactly 512.63%
Exactly 73.47%
Exactly 90.56%
Exact Goals Scored - Ajax
Exactly 06.11%
Exactly 117.08%
Exactly 223.87%
Exactly 322.24%
Exactly 415.54%
Exactly 58.69%
Exactly 64.05%
Exactly 71.62%
Exactly 80.57%
Exactly 90.18%
Exact Goals Scored - NEC Nijmegen
Exactly 054.70%
Exactly 133.00%
Exactly 29.95%
Exactly 32.00%
Exactly 40.30%
Exact Goals Scored - First Half
Exactly 020.73%
Exactly 225.67%
Exactly 45.30%
Exactly 60.44%
 
Exactly 132.62%
Exactly 313.46%
Exactly 51.67%
Exact Goals Scored - First Half - Ajax
Exactly 027.41%
Exactly 135.48%
Exactly 222.96%
Exactly 39.91%
Exactly 43.21%
Exactly 50.83%
Exactly 60.18%
Exact Goals Scored - First Half - NEC Nijmegen
Exactly 075.63%
Exactly 121.12%
Exactly 22.95%
Exactly 30.27%

Alternate Props

Spread

Ajax
Wins by 2+ goals62.81%
Wins by 3+ goals40.68%
Wins by 4+ goals22.43%
Wins by 5+ goals10.62%
NEC Nijmegen
Wins by 2+ goals1.21%
Wins by 3+ goals0.19%

Exact Winning Margin

Ajax
NEC Nijmegen
5
4
3
2
1
D
1
2
3
Ajax
Wins by 1 goal19.77%
Wins by 2 goals22.13%
Wins by 3 goals18.25%
Wins by 4 goals11.81%
Wins by 5 goals6.26%
NEC Nijmegen
Wins by 1 goal4.26%
Wins by 2 goals1.02%
Wins by 3 goals0.17%

Total Goals Over/Under

OverUnder
0.596.66%3.34%
1.585.30%14.70%
2.566.00%34.00%
3.544.14%55.86%
4.525.56%74.44%
5.512.93%87.07%
6.55.78%94.22%
7.52.30%97.70%

Total Goals Ajax Over/Under

OverUnder
0.593.89%6.11%
1.576.82%23.18%
2.552.95%47.05%
3.530.71%69.29%
4.515.16%84.84%
5.56.47%93.53%
6.52.42%97.58%

Total Goals NEC Nijmegen Over/Under

OverUnder
0.545.30%54.70%
1.512.30%87.70%
2.52.34%97.66%

Total Goals - First Half Over/Under

OverUnder
0.579.27%20.73%
1.546.65%53.35%
2.520.99%79.01%
3.57.52%92.48%
4.52.23%97.77%

Score Props

Correct Score

Ajax
NEC Nijmegen
Score0123
0
3.34%
2.02%
0.61%
0.12%
1
9.34%
5.64%
1.70%
0.34%
2
13.06%
7.88%
2.38%
0.48%
3
12.17%
7.34%
2.21%
0.45%
4
8.50%
5.13%
1.55%
0.31%
5
4.75%
2.87%
0.87%
0.17%
Ajax
1-09.34%
2-013.06%
2-17.88%
3-012.17%
3-17.34%
3-22.21%
4-08.50%
4-15.13%
4-21.55%
4-30.31%
5-04.75%
5-12.87%
5-20.87%
5-30.17%
Draw
0-03.34%
1-15.64%
2-22.38%
3-30.45%
NEC Nijmegen
0-12.02%
0-20.61%
1-21.70%
0-30.12%
1-30.34%
2-30.48%

Correct Score - First Half

Ajax
NEC Nijmegen
Score012
0
20.73%
5.79%
0.81%
1
26.83%
7.49%
1.05%
2
17.36%
4.85%
0.68%
3
7.49%
2.09%
0.29%
4
2.42%
0.68%
0.09%
5
0.63%
0.18%
0.02%
6
0.14%
0.04%
0.01%
Ajax
1-026.83%
2-017.36%
2-14.85%
3-07.49%
3-12.09%
3-20.29%
4-02.42%
4-10.68%
5-00.63%
5-10.18%
6-00.14%
Draw
0-020.73%
1-17.49%
2-20.68%
NEC Nijmegen
0-15.79%
0-20.81%
1-21.05%
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