Excelsior at Ajax

Updated

Excelsior

7.7%14.4%77.9%
WinDrawAjax Win
0.68Projected Goals 2.55
2Final Score 2

Ajax

Last 5 Games

Excelsior
Money Line
W 0-4 vs Volendam-140
L 1-2 at Zwolle+275
L 2-0 vs PSV Eindhoven+1500
L 0-3 at Go Ahead Eagles+520
T 1-1 vs RKC Waalwijk+125
Ajax
Money Line
W 1-2 vs Twente+150
L 0-6 at Feyenoord+650
T 1-1 vs Go Ahead Eagles-175
W 3-1 at Zwolle-180
T 2-2 at Sparta Rotterdam+115

Money Line Analysis

Implied Margin

Using the best lines from multiple sportsbooks, this would be the % take from the consensus sportsbook if bets were even on each side.

More on Implied Margin
:2.8%

Implied Margin

Using the best lines from multiple sportsbooks, this would be the % take from the consensus sportsbook if bets were even on each side.

More on Implied Margin
:4.8%
 Open LineHeritageBovadaBetOnlineYouWagerSportsBettingBest Line

No-Vig Odds

Using a market maker sportsbook, this is what the line would be if there was no vigorish (sportsbook fee) in the price.

More on No-Vig Odds
Excelsior+758+655+600+700+674+700+700+754.0
Ajax-288-262-280-315-305-315-262-246.1
Draw+451+443+440+470+457+445+457+481.8
 Open LineSouth PointCircaWynnStationsWestgateBest Line

No-Vig Odds

Using a market maker sportsbook, this is what the line would be if there was no vigorish (sportsbook fee) in the price.

More on No-Vig Odds
Excelsior+775----+700+700+754.0
Ajax-335-----320-320-246.1
Draw+500----+510+510+481.8

Overall

Bet Value Inactive
Excelsior: 0.0%
Bet Value Inactive
Ajax: 10.0%

Base Rating

Our analytical projection of the match in relation to the implied probability to win from the sportsbooks.

More on Base Rating

Excelsior: 0.0%
Ajax: 30.0%

Bet Trends

Doing an analysis on the betting data, we project which team has which team has an edge.

More on Bet Trends

Excelsior: 10.0%

Sharp Line

Our proprietary formula predicting which direction the line will move.

More on Sharp Line

Excelsior: 10.0%
Ajax: 0.0%

Latest ML

Steam Move

A quick and uniform line move across every sportsbook. Usually caused by an injury or deep-pocketed sharp bettor.

More on Steam Move

Excelsior ML moved from +780 to +674
Ajax ML moved from -345 to -360

Overall

Bet Value Inactive
Excelsior: 0.0%
Bet Value Inactive
Ajax: 20.0%

Base Rating

Our analytical projection of the match in relation to the implied probability to win from the sportsbooks.

More on Base Rating

Excelsior: 0.0%
Ajax: 30.0%

Bet Trends

Doing an analysis on the betting data, we project which team has which team has an edge.

More on Bet Trends

Excelsior: 0.0%

Sharp Line

Our proprietary formula predicting which direction the line will move.

More on Sharp Line

Excelsior: 10.0%
Ajax: 0.0%

Latest ML

Steam Move

A quick and uniform line move across every sportsbook. Usually caused by an injury or deep-pocketed sharp bettor.

More on Steam Move

Excelsior ML moved from +720 to +700
Ajax ML moved from -350 to -375

Over/Under Analysis

Implied Margin

Using the best lines from multiple sportsbooks, this would be the % take from the consensus sportsbook if bets were even on each side.

More on Implied Margin
:-0.2%
 Open LineHeritageBovadaBetOnlineYouWagerSportsBettingBest Line

No-Vig Odds

Using a market maker sportsbook, this is what the line would be if there was no vigorish (sportsbook fee) in the price.

More on No-Vig Odds
Overo3½+118o3½+115o3¼-118o3½+105o3½-104o3½+105o3¼-118o3½+114
Underu3½-140u3½-135u3¼-102u3½-125u3½-114u3½-125u3½-114u3½-114
 Open LineSouth PointCircaWynnStationsWestgateBest Line

No-Vig Odds

Using a market maker sportsbook, this is what the line would be if there was no vigorish (sportsbook fee) in the price.

More on No-Vig Odds
Over-----o3½+114
Under-----u3½-114

Overall

Bet Value Inactive
Over: 0.0%
Bet Value Inactive
Under: 30.0%

Base Rating

Our analytical projection of the match in relation to the implied probability to win from the sportsbooks.

More on Base Rating

Over: 0.0%
Under: 10.0%

Bet Trends

Doing an analysis on the betting data, we project which team has which team has an edge.

More on Bet Trends

Over: 0.0%

Sharp Line

Our proprietary formula predicting which direction the line will move.

More on Sharp Line

Over: 0.0%
Under: 20.0%

Latest O/U

Steam Move

A quick and uniform line move across every sportsbook. Usually caused by an injury or deep-pocketed sharp bettor.

More on Steam Move

No Steam Moves On Over
No Steam Moves On Under

Goal Props

Both Teams to Score
Yes45.3%
 
No54.7%

Total Goals

0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
Exact Goals Scored - Overall
Exactly 03.97%
Exactly 220.66%
Exactly 417.93%
Exactly 66.22%
Exactly 81.16%
Exactly 100.13%
 
Exactly 112.81%
Exactly 322.22%
Exactly 511.57%
Exactly 72.87%
Exactly 90.41%
Exact Goals Scored - Excelsior
Exactly 050.90%
Exactly 134.37%
Exactly 211.60%
Exactly 32.61%
Exactly 40.44%
Exact Goals Scored - Ajax
Exactly 07.80%
Exactly 119.89%
Exactly 225.38%
Exactly 321.58%
Exactly 413.77%
Exactly 57.03%
Exactly 62.99%
Exactly 71.09%
Exactly 80.35%
Exact Goals Scored - First Half
Exactly 022.45%
Exactly 225.05%
Exactly 44.66%
Exactly 60.35%
 
Exactly 133.54%
Exactly 312.48%
Exactly 51.39%
Exact Goals Scored - First Half - Excelsior
Exactly 073.15%
Exactly 122.87%
Exactly 23.57%
Exactly 30.37%
Exact Goals Scored - First Half - Ajax
Exactly 030.69%
Exactly 136.25%
Exactly 221.41%
Exactly 38.43%
Exactly 42.49%
Exactly 50.59%
Exactly 60.12%

Alternate Props

Spread

Excelsior
Wins by 2+ goals1.86%
Wins by 3+ goals0.33%
Ajax
Wins by 2+ goals56.08%
Wins by 3+ goals33.94%
Wins by 4+ goals17.33%
Wins by 5+ goals7.53%
Wins by 6+ goals2.79%
Wins by 7+ goals0.85%
Wins by 8+ goals0.18%

Exact Winning Margin

Excelsior
Ajax
3
2
1
D
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
Excelsior
Wins by 1 goal5.75%
Wins by 2 goals1.54%
Wins by 3 goals0.29%
Ajax
Wins by 1 goal21.74%
Wins by 2 goals22.13%
Wins by 3 goals16.62%
Wins by 4 goals9.80%
Wins by 5 goals4.74%
Wins by 6 goals1.94%
Wins by 7 goals0.67%
Wins by 8 goals0.18%

Total Goals Over/Under

OverUnder
0.596.03%3.97%
1.583.23%16.77%
2.562.57%37.43%
3.540.34%59.66%
4.522.42%77.58%
5.510.85%89.15%
6.54.63%95.37%
7.51.76%98.24%

Total Goals Excelsior Over/Under

OverUnder
0.549.10%50.90%
1.514.72%85.28%
2.53.12%96.88%

Total Goals Ajax Over/Under

OverUnder
0.592.20%7.80%
1.572.31%27.69%
2.546.93%53.07%
3.525.35%74.65%
4.511.58%88.42%
5.54.56%95.44%
6.51.57%98.43%

Total Goals - First Half Over/Under

OverUnder
0.577.55%22.45%
1.544.02%55.98%
2.518.97%81.03%
3.56.49%93.51%
4.51.83%98.17%

Score Props

Correct Score

Excelsior
Ajax
Score012345
0
3.97%
10.13%
12.92%
10.99%
7.01%
3.58%
1
2.68%
6.84%
8.72%
7.42%
4.73%
2.42%
2
0.90%
2.31%
2.95%
2.50%
1.60%
0.82%
3
0.20%
0.52%
0.66%
0.56%
0.36%
0.18%
Excelsior
1-02.68%
2-00.90%
2-12.31%
3-00.20%
3-10.52%
3-20.66%
Draw
0-03.97%
1-16.84%
2-22.95%
3-30.56%
Ajax
0-110.13%
0-212.92%
1-28.72%
0-310.99%
1-37.42%
2-32.50%
0-47.01%
1-44.73%
2-41.60%
3-40.36%
0-53.58%
1-52.42%
2-50.82%
3-50.18%

Correct Score - First Half

Excelsior
Ajax
Score012345
0
22.45%
26.52%
15.66%
6.17%
1.82%
0.43%
1
7.02%
8.29%
4.90%
1.93%
0.57%
0.13%
2
1.10%
1.30%
0.77%
0.30%
0.09%
0.02%
3
0.11%
0.14%
0.08%
0.03%
0.01%
0.00%
Excelsior
1-07.02%
2-01.10%
2-11.30%
3-00.11%
3-10.14%
Draw
0-022.45%
1-18.29%
2-20.77%
Ajax
0-126.52%
0-215.66%
1-24.90%
0-36.17%
1-31.93%
2-30.30%
0-41.82%
1-40.57%
0-50.43%
1-50.13%
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