Derby County at Stoke City

Updated

Derby County

22.0%25.5%52.5%
Derby County WinDrawStoke City Win
0.91Projected Goals 1.56
1Final Score 2

Stoke City

Last 5 Games

Derby County
Money Line
T 1-1 vs Hull City+125
T 1-1 at Oxford United+170
T 1-1 at Millwall+295
W 0-2 vs Queens Park Rangers+125
L 0-2 at Sunderland+425
Stoke City
Money Line
L 0-2 at Sheffield United+400
T 2-2 vs Bristol City+150
T 1-1 vs Norwich City+165
T 0-0 at Swansea City+215
W 1-6 vs Portsmouth-115

Money Line Analysis

Implied Margin

Using the best lines from multiple sportsbooks, this would be the % take from the consensus sportsbook if bets were even on each side.

More on Implied Margin
:3.8%

Implied Margin

Using the best lines from multiple sportsbooks, this would be the % take from the consensus sportsbook if bets were even on each side.

More on Implied Margin
:5.1%
 Open LineHeritageBovadaBetOnlineYouWagerSportsBettingBest Line

No-Vig Odds

Using a market maker sportsbook, this is what the line would be if there was no vigorish (sportsbook fee) in the price.

More on No-Vig Odds
Derby County+225+211+205+176+199+176+211+198.6
Stoke City+120+135+130+135+130+135+135+154.3
Draw+225+242+225+240+239+240+242+267.9
 Open LineSouth PointCircaWynnStationsWestgateBest Line

No-Vig Odds

Using a market maker sportsbook, this is what the line would be if there was no vigorish (sportsbook fee) in the price.

More on No-Vig Odds
Derby County+230---+200+240+240+198.6
Stoke City+120---+110+115+115+154.3
Draw+240---+215+240+240+267.9

Overall

Bet Value Inactive
Derby County: 0.0%
Bet Value Inactive
Stoke City: 0.0%

Base Rating

Our analytical projection of the match in relation to the implied probability to win from the sportsbooks.

More on Base Rating

Derby County: 0.0%
Stoke City: 40.0%

Bet Trends

Doing an analysis on the betting data, we project which team has which team has an edge.

More on Bet Trends

Derby County: 10.0%

Sharp Line

Our proprietary formula predicting which direction the line will move.

More on Sharp Line

Derby County: 30.0%
Stoke City: 0.0%

Latest ML

Steam Move

A quick and uniform line move across every sportsbook. Usually caused by an injury or deep-pocketed sharp bettor.

More on Steam Move

Derby County ML moved from +219 to +211
Stoke City ML moved from +119 to +113

Overall

Bet Value Inactive
Derby County: 50.0%
Bet Value Inactive
Stoke City: 0.0%

Base Rating

Our analytical projection of the match in relation to the implied probability to win from the sportsbooks.

More on Base Rating

Derby County: 0.0%
Stoke City: 30.0%

Bet Trends

Doing an analysis on the betting data, we project which team has which team has an edge.

More on Bet Trends

Derby County: 0.0%

Sharp Line

Our proprietary formula predicting which direction the line will move.

More on Sharp Line

Derby County: 80.0%
Stoke City: 0.0%

Latest ML

Steam Move

A quick and uniform line move across every sportsbook. Usually caused by an injury or deep-pocketed sharp bettor.

More on Steam Move

No Steam Moves On Derby County ML
No Steam Moves On Stoke City ML

Over/Under Analysis

Implied Margin

Using the best lines from multiple sportsbooks, this would be the % take from the consensus sportsbook if bets were even on each side.

More on Implied Margin
:2.3%
 Open LineHeritageBovadaBetOnlineYouWagerSportsBettingBest Line

No-Vig Odds

Using a market maker sportsbook, this is what the line would be if there was no vigorish (sportsbook fee) in the price.

More on No-Vig Odds
Overo2½+102o2½-107o2½+100o2½-102o2½-101o2½-102o2½+100o2½+107
Underu2½-122u2½-110u2½-120u2½-118u2½-119u2½-118u2½-110u2½-107
 Open LineSouth PointCircaWynnStationsWestgateBest Line

No-Vig Odds

Using a market maker sportsbook, this is what the line would be if there was no vigorish (sportsbook fee) in the price.

More on No-Vig Odds
Over-----o2½+107
Under-----u2½-107

Overall

Bet Value Inactive
Over: 0.0%
Bet Value Inactive
Under: 0.0%

Base Rating

Our analytical projection of the match in relation to the implied probability to win from the sportsbooks.

More on Base Rating

Over: 0.0%
Under: 0.0%

Bet Trends

Doing an analysis on the betting data, we project which team has which team has an edge.

More on Bet Trends

Over: 0.0%

Sharp Line

Our proprietary formula predicting which direction the line will move.

More on Sharp Line

Over: 0.0%
Under: 0.0%

Latest O/U

Steam Move

A quick and uniform line move across every sportsbook. Usually caused by an injury or deep-pocketed sharp bettor.

More on Steam Move

No Steam Moves On Over
No Steam Moves On Under

Goal Props

Both Teams to Score
Yes47.1%
 
No52.9%

Total Goals

0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
Exact Goals Scored - Overall
Exactly 08.50%
Exactly 225.82%
Exactly 413.08%
Exactly 62.65%
Exactly 80.29%
 
Exactly 120.95%
Exactly 321.22%
Exactly 56.45%
Exactly 70.93%
Exact Goals Scored - Derby County
Exactly 040.29%
Exactly 136.63%
Exactly 216.65%
Exactly 35.04%
Exactly 41.15%
Exactly 50.21%
Exact Goals Scored - Stoke City
Exactly 021.09%
Exactly 132.82%
Exactly 225.54%
Exactly 313.25%
Exactly 45.16%
Exactly 51.61%
Exactly 60.42%
Exact Goals Scored - First Half
Exactly 031.93%
Exactly 220.81%
Exactly 42.26%
 
Exactly 136.45%
Exactly 37.92%
Exactly 50.52%
Exact Goals Scored - First Half - Derby County
Exactly 065.65%
Exactly 127.63%
Exactly 25.81%
Exactly 30.82%
Exact Goals Scored - First Half - Stoke City
Exactly 048.64%
Exactly 135.06%
Exactly 212.63%
Exactly 33.03%
Exactly 40.55%

Alternate Props

Spread

Derby County
Wins by 2+ goals7.33%
Wins by 3+ goals1.85%
Wins by 4+ goals0.35%
Stoke City
Wins by 2+ goals27.31%
Wins by 3+ goals11.22%
Wins by 4+ goals3.70%
Wins by 5+ goals0.97%
Wins by 6+ goals0.17%

Exact Winning Margin

Derby County
Stoke City
4
3
2
1
D
1
2
3
4
5
6
Derby County
Wins by 1 goal14.64%
Wins by 2 goals5.49%
Wins by 3 goals1.49%
Wins by 4 goals0.31%
Stoke City
Wins by 1 goal25.07%
Wins by 2 goals16.09%
Wins by 3 goals7.52%
Wins by 4 goals2.74%
Wins by 5 goals0.80%
Wins by 6 goals0.17%

Total Goals Over/Under

OverUnder
0.591.50%8.50%
1.570.56%29.44%
2.544.73%55.27%
3.523.51%76.49%
4.510.43%89.57%
5.53.98%96.02%
6.51.33%98.67%

Total Goals Derby County Over/Under

OverUnder
0.559.71%40.29%
1.523.08%76.92%
2.56.44%93.56%
3.51.39%98.61%

Total Goals Stoke City Over/Under

OverUnder
0.578.91%21.09%
1.546.09%53.91%
2.520.55%79.45%
3.57.29%92.71%
4.52.14%97.86%

Total Goals - First Half Over/Under

OverUnder
0.568.07%31.93%
1.531.62%68.38%
2.510.81%89.19%
3.52.89%97.11%

Score Props

Correct Score

Derby County
Stoke City
Score012345
0
8.50%
13.22%
10.29%
5.34%
2.08%
0.65%
1
7.72%
12.02%
9.36%
4.85%
1.89%
0.59%
2
3.51%
5.46%
4.25%
2.21%
0.86%
0.27%
3
1.06%
1.66%
1.29%
0.67%
0.26%
0.08%
4
0.24%
0.38%
0.29%
0.15%
0.06%
0.02%
Derby County
1-07.72%
2-03.51%
2-15.46%
3-01.06%
3-11.66%
3-21.29%
4-00.24%
4-10.38%
4-20.29%
4-30.15%
Draw
0-08.50%
1-112.02%
2-24.25%
3-30.67%
Stoke City
0-113.22%
0-210.29%
1-29.36%
0-35.34%
1-34.85%
2-32.21%
0-42.08%
1-41.89%
2-40.86%
3-40.26%
0-50.65%
1-50.59%
2-50.27%

Correct Score - First Half

Derby County
Stoke City
Score01234
0
31.93%
23.01%
8.29%
1.99%
0.36%
1
13.44%
9.69%
3.49%
0.84%
0.15%
2
2.83%
2.04%
0.73%
0.18%
0.03%
3
0.40%
0.29%
0.10%
0.02%
0.00%
Derby County
1-013.44%
2-02.83%
2-12.04%
3-00.40%
3-10.29%
3-20.10%
Draw
0-031.93%
1-19.69%
2-20.73%
Stoke City
0-123.01%
0-28.29%
1-23.49%
0-31.99%
1-30.84%
2-30.18%
0-40.36%
1-40.15%
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