English Premier League Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Games for November 29, 2024

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		GoalsTotal
Goals		Best
O/U

Bet Value

We use three different graphics to describe Bet Value within a matchup.

More on Bet Value
More Details
Southampton
Brighton and Hove Albion 		11.3%
71.4%		17.3%
+608
-239
+595
-250
0.80
2.32		3.12
o3¼-106
u3½-124
o3½+120
u3½-135
Volatility Bet Value Active
Games for Nov 28, 2024
Games for Nov 30, 2024

Completed Games

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		Final
Goals		Sportsbook
Log Loss		DRatings
Log Loss
Burnley
Tottenham		12.2%
69.5%		18.3%
+924
-305
+850
-310
0
1		-0.30647-0.32673-0.36409
Arsenal
Tottenham		30.3%
43.7%		26.0%
+232
+131
+230
+125
0
3		-0.85607-0.85170-0.82720
Manchester City
Wolverhampton		72.0%
10.3%		17.7%
-375
+1200
-425
+1300
5
1		-0.25213-0.24903-0.32843
Everton
Watford		40.4%
31.7%		27.9%
-143
+485
-165
+500
0
0		-1.36508-1.40760-1.27586
Norwich City
Leicester City		9.6%
74.4%		16.0%
+891
-290
+840
-300
0
3		-0.31422-0.32775-0.29633
Chelsea
Leeds United		65.2%
14.7%		20.1%
-142
+415
-150
+390
3
0		-0.54922-0.55213-0.42770
Liverpool
Aston Villa		59.1%
18.8%		22.0%
-195
+647
-213
+650
2
1		-0.41849-0.40899-0.52538
Newcastle United
Manchester City		3.8%
87.0%		9.2%
+1700
-575
+1600
-600
0
5		-0.19179-0.20226-0.13912
West Ham United
Norwich City		55.2%
20.9%		23.9%
-138
+390
-140
+380
4
0		-0.56680-0.58594-0.59390
Everton
Leicester City		20.2%
57.5%		22.2%
+191
+169
+164
+180
2
1		-1.08373-1.01807-1.59746
Leeds United
Arsenal		10.2%
73.4%		16.5%
+535
-183
+585
-210
1
2		-0.45725-0.41864-0.30951
Tottenham
Liverpool		9.8%
74.8%		15.5%
+625
-224
+610
-245
1
1		-1.66379-1.67526-1.86717
Manchester United
Brighton and Hove Albion		46.9%
26.4%		26.7%
+152
+206
+135
+215
0
4		-1.13772-1.18551-1.33234
Southampton
Brentford		34.4%
38.4%		27.2%
+258
+113
+250
+110
0
3		-0.77646-0.78537-0.95659
Aston Villa
Burnley		39.7%
32.3%		28.0%
+153
+218
+145
+205
3
1		-0.94364-0.93440-0.92261
Wolverhampton
Chelsea		7.1%
78.3%		14.6%
+860
-260
+900
-300
2
2		-1.64990-1.65826-1.92675
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Season Prediction Results

 GamesRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks00-0-0 (0.000)0 
Sportsbooks00-0-0 (0.000)0 
DRatings00-0-0 (0.000)0

Season Simulation

*Through all games played on or before 11/25/24
#TeamWLTPtsWin PLChamps LeagueEuropa LeagueRelegation
1Liverpool (10-1-1, 31 pts)24.66.27.181.161.2%99.2%0.6%0.0%
2Manchester City (7-3-2, 23 pts)23.37.37.477.229.0%96.5%2.5%0.0%
3Arsenal (6-2-4, 22 pts)20.07.710.270.37.1%84.2%8.4%0.0%
4Chelsea (6-2-4, 22 pts)17.89.211.064.51.8%47.9%20.2%0.0%
5Brighton and Hove Albion (6-2-4, 22 pts)16.610.211.261.00.4%24.2%20.0%0.0%
6Tottenham (6-5-1, 19 pts)17.612.48.060.80.2%27.0%17.8%0.0%
7Nottingham Forest (5-3-4, 19 pts)12.214.711.147.70.0%0.6%0.9%3.7%
8Aston Villa (5-3-4, 19 pts)15.011.811.356.20.2%8.2%9.5%0.2%
9Newcastle United (5-4-3, 18 pts)14.812.810.354.80.0%5.3%7.5%0.4%
10Fulham (5-4-3, 18 pts)13.414.510.150.30.0%1.8%2.6%1.6%
11Brentford (5-5-2, 17 pts)12.416.78.946.10.0%0.7%0.4%4.3%
12Manchester United (4-4-4, 16 pts)14.312.511.254.10.1%4.2%8.0%0.6%
13Bournemouth (4-5-3, 15 pts)11.716.110.245.30.0%0.1%0.6%7.4%
14West Ham United (4-5-3, 15 pts)11.616.110.345.20.0%0.0%0.7%8.9%
15Everton (2-5-5, 11 pts)9.616.412.040.70.0%0.1%0.2%24.9%
16Leicester City (2-6-4, 10 pts)9.117.911.038.30.0%0.0%0.0%38.9%
17Wolverhampton (2-7-3, 9 pts)9.718.210.139.20.0%0.0%0.1%32.4%
18Ipswich Town (1-5-6, 9 pts)7.218.112.734.20.0%0.0%0.0%66.6%
19Crystal Palace (1-6-5, 8 pts)9.116.912.139.20.0%0.0%0.0%30.6%
20Southampton (1-10-1, 4 pts)7.922.37.831.60.0%0.0%0.0%79.5%

Predictions Methodology

The English Premier League projections are based on our proprietary algorithm which we use to project out soccer matches. The EPL is a twenty team league which plays 38 games through out the season. Currently, the top four teams receive a draw to the Champions League and the fifth place team receives a draw to Europa League. Each year, the 18th through 20th placed team gets relegated to the English Championship division.