NEC Nijmegen at Willem II

Updated

NEC Nijmegen

32.9%27.3%39.7%
NEC Nijmegen WinDrawWillem II Win
1.15Projected Goals 1.29
1Final Score 4

Willem II

Last 5 Games

NEC Nijmegen
Money Line
T 1-1 vs Sparta Rotterdam+115
L 0-5 at Go Ahead Eagles+275
L 2-1 vs Ajax+370
L 2-1 vs Utrecht+140
W 3-0 at RKC Waalwijk-115
Willem II
Money Line
W 1-0 at Zwolle+315
L 2-1 vs Heerenveen+125
L 0-2 at Groningen+285
T 2-2 vs NAC Breda+130
W 2-1 at AZ Alkmaar+500

Money Line Analysis

Implied Margin

Using the best lines from multiple sportsbooks, this would be the % take from the consensus sportsbook if bets were even on each side.

More on Implied Margin
:3.5%

Implied Margin

Using the best lines from multiple sportsbooks, this would be the % take from the consensus sportsbook if bets were even on each side.

More on Implied Margin
:5.1%
 Open LineHeritageBovadaBetOnlineYouWagerSportsBettingBest Line

No-Vig Odds

Using a market maker sportsbook, this is what the line would be if there was no vigorish (sportsbook fee) in the price.

More on No-Vig Odds
NEC Nijmegen+170+119+115+112+112+112+119+123.0
Willem II+154+250+250+255+249+255+255+273.4
Draw+262+236+215+235+232+235+236+252.4
 Open LineSouth PointCircaWynnStationsWestgateBest Line

No-Vig Odds

Using a market maker sportsbook, this is what the line would be if there was no vigorish (sportsbook fee) in the price.

More on No-Vig Odds
NEC Nijmegen+145----+115+115+123.0
Willem II+180----+245+245+273.4
Draw+250----+235+235+252.4

Overall

Bet Value Inactive
NEC Nijmegen: 0.0%
Bet Value Inactive
Willem II: 10.0%

Base Rating

Our analytical projection of the match in relation to the implied probability to win from the sportsbooks.

More on Base Rating

NEC Nijmegen: 0.0%
Willem II: 40.0%

Bet Trends

Doing an analysis on the betting data, we project which team has which team has an edge.

More on Bet Trends

NEC Nijmegen: 30.0%

Sharp Line

Our proprietary formula predicting which direction the line will move.

More on Sharp Line

NEC Nijmegen: 0.0%
Willem II: 0.0%

Latest ML

Steam Move

A quick and uniform line move across every sportsbook. Usually caused by an injury or deep-pocketed sharp bettor.

More on Steam Move

NEC Nijmegen ML moved from +128 to +121
Willem II ML moved from +200 to +185

Overall

Bet Value Inactive
NEC Nijmegen: 0.0%
Bet Value Inactive
Willem II: 20.0%

Base Rating

Our analytical projection of the match in relation to the implied probability to win from the sportsbooks.

More on Base Rating

NEC Nijmegen: 0.0%
Willem II: 40.0%

Bet Trends

Doing an analysis on the betting data, we project which team has which team has an edge.

More on Bet Trends

NEC Nijmegen: 20.0%

Sharp Line

Our proprietary formula predicting which direction the line will move.

More on Sharp Line

NEC Nijmegen: 0.0%
Willem II: 0.0%

Latest ML

Steam Move

A quick and uniform line move across every sportsbook. Usually caused by an injury or deep-pocketed sharp bettor.

More on Steam Move

NEC Nijmegen ML moved from +130 to +115
No Steam Moves On Willem II ML

Over/Under Analysis

Implied Margin

Using the best lines from multiple sportsbooks, this would be the % take from the consensus sportsbook if bets were even on each side.

More on Implied Margin
:-0.4%
 Open LineHeritageBovadaBetOnlineYouWagerSportsBettingBest Line

No-Vig Odds

Using a market maker sportsbook, this is what the line would be if there was no vigorish (sportsbook fee) in the price.

More on No-Vig Odds
Overo2½-113o2½+110o2¼-118o2¼-115o2¼-114o2¼-115o2¼-114o2¼-104
Underu2½-104u2½-129u2¼-102u2¼-105u2¼-106u2¼-105u2½-129u2¼+104
 Open LineSouth PointCircaWynnStationsWestgateBest Line

No-Vig Odds

Using a market maker sportsbook, this is what the line would be if there was no vigorish (sportsbook fee) in the price.

More on No-Vig Odds
Over-----o2¼-104
Under-----u2¼+104

Overall

Bet Value Inactive
Over: 0.0%
Bet Value Inactive
Under: 0.0%

Base Rating

Our analytical projection of the match in relation to the implied probability to win from the sportsbooks.

More on Base Rating

Over: 10.0%
Under: 0.0%

Bet Trends

Doing an analysis on the betting data, we project which team has which team has an edge.

More on Bet Trends

Over: 0.0%

Sharp Line

Our proprietary formula predicting which direction the line will move.

More on Sharp Line

Over: 0.0%
Under: 0.0%

Latest O/U

Steam Move

A quick and uniform line move across every sportsbook. Usually caused by an injury or deep-pocketed sharp bettor.

More on Steam Move

No Steam Moves On Over
The Under moved from u2½-112 to u2¼+105

Goal Props

Both Teams to Score
Yes49.5%
 
No50.5%

Total Goals

0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
Exact Goals Scored - Overall
Exactly 08.74%
Exactly 225.96%
Exactly 412.85%
Exactly 62.54%
Exactly 80.27%
 
Exactly 121.31%
Exactly 321.09%
Exactly 56.26%
Exactly 70.89%
Exact Goals Scored - NEC Nijmegen
Exactly 031.74%
Exactly 136.42%
Exactly 220.90%
Exactly 38.00%
Exactly 42.29%
Exactly 50.53%
Exactly 60.10%
Exact Goals Scored - Willem II
Exactly 027.55%
Exactly 135.52%
Exactly 222.90%
Exactly 39.84%
Exactly 43.17%
Exactly 50.82%
Exactly 60.18%
Exact Goals Scored - First Half
Exactly 032.36%
Exactly 220.60%
Exactly 42.19%
 
Exactly 136.51%
Exactly 37.75%
Exactly 50.49%
Exact Goals Scored - First Half - NEC Nijmegen
Exactly 058.78%
Exactly 131.23%
Exactly 28.30%
Exactly 31.47%
Exactly 40.20%
Exact Goals Scored - First Half - Willem II
Exactly 055.05%
Exactly 132.86%
Exactly 29.81%
Exactly 31.95%
Exactly 40.29%

Alternate Props

Spread

NEC Nijmegen
Wins by 2+ goals13.38%
Wins by 3+ goals4.20%
Wins by 4+ goals1.05%
Wins by 5+ goals0.21%
Willem II
Wins by 2+ goals17.77%
Wins by 3+ goals6.18%
Wins by 4+ goals1.72%
Wins by 5+ goals0.38%

Exact Winning Margin

NEC Nijmegen
Willem II
5
4
3
2
1
D
1
2
3
4
5
NEC Nijmegen
Wins by 1 goal19.53%
Wins by 2 goals9.18%
Wins by 3 goals3.15%
Wins by 4 goals0.84%
Wins by 5 goals0.18%
Willem II
Wins by 1 goal21.94%
Wins by 2 goals11.58%
Wins by 3 goals4.46%
Wins by 4 goals1.34%
Wins by 5 goals0.32%

Total Goals Over/Under

OverUnder
0.591.26%8.74%
1.569.95%30.05%
2.543.99%56.01%
3.522.90%77.10%
4.510.06%89.94%
5.53.79%96.21%
6.51.25%98.75%

Total Goals NEC Nijmegen Over/Under

OverUnder
0.568.26%31.74%
1.531.84%68.16%
2.510.94%89.06%
3.52.94%97.06%

Total Goals Willem II Over/Under

OverUnder
0.572.45%27.55%
1.536.94%63.06%
2.514.04%85.96%
3.54.20%95.80%
4.51.03%98.97%

Total Goals - First Half Over/Under

OverUnder
0.567.64%32.36%
1.531.13%68.87%
2.510.54%89.46%
3.52.79%97.21%

Score Props

Correct Score

NEC Nijmegen
Willem II
Score012345
0
8.74%
11.27%
7.27%
3.12%
1.01%
0.26%
1
10.03%
12.94%
8.34%
3.58%
1.16%
0.30%
2
5.76%
7.42%
4.79%
2.06%
0.66%
0.17%
3
2.20%
2.84%
1.83%
0.79%
0.25%
0.07%
4
0.63%
0.81%
0.53%
0.23%
0.07%
0.02%
5
0.15%
0.19%
0.12%
0.05%
0.02%
0.00%
NEC Nijmegen
1-010.03%
2-05.76%
2-17.42%
3-02.20%
3-12.84%
3-21.83%
4-00.63%
4-10.81%
4-20.53%
4-30.23%
5-00.15%
5-10.19%
5-20.12%
Draw
0-08.74%
1-112.94%
2-24.79%
3-30.79%
Willem II
0-111.27%
0-27.27%
1-28.34%
0-33.12%
1-33.58%
2-32.06%
0-41.01%
1-41.16%
2-40.66%
3-40.25%
0-50.26%
1-50.30%
2-50.17%

Correct Score - First Half

NEC Nijmegen
Willem II
Score01234
0
32.36%
19.32%
5.77%
1.15%
0.17%
1
17.19%
10.26%
3.06%
0.61%
0.09%
2
4.57%
2.73%
0.81%
0.16%
0.02%
3
0.81%
0.48%
0.14%
0.03%
0.00%
4
0.11%
0.06%
0.02%
0.00%
0.00%
NEC Nijmegen
1-017.19%
2-04.57%
2-12.73%
3-00.81%
3-10.48%
3-20.14%
4-00.11%
Draw
0-032.36%
1-110.26%
2-20.81%
Willem II
0-119.32%
0-25.77%
1-23.06%
0-31.15%
1-30.61%
2-30.16%
0-40.17%
Fortuna Sittard at Utrecht