Ajax at NEC Nijmegen

Updated

Ajax

58.6%22.5%18.9%
Ajax WinDrawWin
1.85Projected Goals 0.95
2Final Score 1

NEC Nijmegen

Last 5 Games

Ajax
Money Line
W 0-2 vs Zwolle-875
T 2-2 at Twente+145
W 2-3 vs PSV Eindhoven+200
W 2-0 at Feyenoord+285
W 0-1 vs Willem II-265
NEC Nijmegen
Money Line
L 2-1 vs Utrecht+140
W 3-0 at RKC Waalwijk-115
W 0-6 vs Groningen-115
L 0-1 at Almere City+140
W 0-3 vs Heerenveen+115

Money Line Analysis

Implied Margin

Using the best lines from multiple sportsbooks, this would be the % take from the consensus sportsbook if bets were even on each side.

More on Implied Margin
:
2.7%

Implied Margin

Using the best lines from multiple sportsbooks, this would be the % take from the consensus sportsbook if bets were even on each side.

More on Implied Margin
:
4.7%
 Open LineHeritageBovadaBetOnlineYouWagerSportsBettingBest Line

No-Vig Odds

Using a market maker sportsbook, this is what the line would be if there was no vigorish (sportsbook fee) in the price.

More on No-Vig Odds
Ajax-131-128-130-122-132-122-122-109.1
NEC Nijmegen+338+343+320+310+326+310+343+331.8
Draw+308+296+275+285+291+285+296+305.5
 Open LineSouth PointCircaWynnStationsWestgateBest Line

No-Vig Odds

Using a market maker sportsbook, this is what the line would be if there was no vigorish (sportsbook fee) in the price.

More on No-Vig Odds
Ajax-135-----140-140-109.1
NEC Nijmegen+330----+370+370+331.8
Draw+300----+295+295+305.5

Overall

Bet Value Inactive
Ajax: 10.0%
Bet Value Inactive
NEC Nijmegen: 0.0%

Base Rating

Our analytical projection of the match in relation to the implied probability to win from the sportsbooks.

More on Base Rating

Ajax: 20.0%
NEC Nijmegen: 0.0%

Bet Trends

Doing an analysis on the betting data, we project which team has which team has an edge.

More on Bet Trends

Sharp Line

Our proprietary formula predicting which direction the line will move.

More on Sharp Line

Ajax: 0.0%
NEC Nijmegen: 10.0%

Latest ML

Steam Move

A quick and uniform line move across every sportsbook. Usually caused by an injury or deep-pocketed sharp bettor.

More on Steam Move

Ajax ML moved from -150 to -160
NEC Nijmegen ML moved from +340 to +326

Overall

Bet Value Inactive
Ajax: 0.0%
Bet Value Inactive
NEC Nijmegen: 20.0%

Base Rating

Our analytical projection of the match in relation to the implied probability to win from the sportsbooks.

More on Base Rating

Ajax: 10.0%
NEC Nijmegen: 0.0%

Bet Trends

Doing an analysis on the betting data, we project which team has which team has an edge.

More on Bet Trends

Sharp Line

Our proprietary formula predicting which direction the line will move.

More on Sharp Line

Ajax: 0.0%
NEC Nijmegen: 40.0%

Latest ML

Steam Move

A quick and uniform line move across every sportsbook. Usually caused by an injury or deep-pocketed sharp bettor.

More on Steam Move

Ajax ML moved from -130 to -140
NEC Nijmegen ML moved from +375 to +365

Over/Under Analysis

Implied Margin

Using the best lines from multiple sportsbooks, this would be the % take from the consensus sportsbook if bets were even on each side.

More on Implied Margin
:
3.0%
 Open LineHeritageBovadaBetOnlineYouWagerSportsBettingBest Line

No-Vig Odds

Using a market maker sportsbook, this is what the line would be if there was no vigorish (sportsbook fee) in the price.

More on No-Vig Odds
Overo3+112o3+115o2¾-118o2¾-115o2¾-115o2¾-115o2¾-115o2¾-104
Underu3-132u3-135u2¾-102u2¾-105u2¾-105u2¾-105u3-135u2¾+104
 Open LineSouth PointCircaWynnStationsWestgateBest Line

No-Vig Odds

Using a market maker sportsbook, this is what the line would be if there was no vigorish (sportsbook fee) in the price.

More on No-Vig Odds
Over-----o2¾-104
Under-----u2¾+104

Overall

Bet Value Inactive
Over: 0.0%
Bet Value Inactive
Under: 0.0%

Base Rating

Our analytical projection of the match in relation to the implied probability to win from the sportsbooks.

More on Base Rating

Over: 0.0%
Under: 0.0%

Bet Trends

Doing an analysis on the betting data, we project which team has which team has an edge.

More on Bet Trends

Sharp Line

Our proprietary formula predicting which direction the line will move.

More on Sharp Line

Over: 0.0%
Under: 0.0%

Latest O/U

Steam Move

A quick and uniform line move across every sportsbook. Usually caused by an injury or deep-pocketed sharp bettor.

More on Steam Move

No Steam Moves On Over
No Steam Moves On Under

Goal Props

Both Teams to Score
Yes51.6%
 
No48.4%

Total Goals

0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
Exact Goals Scored - Overall
Exactly 06.10%
Exactly 223.86%
Exactly 415.55%
Exactly 64.05%
Exactly 80.57%
 
Exactly 117.07%
Exactly 322.24%
Exactly 58.70%
Exactly 71.62%
Exactly 90.18%
Exact Goals Scored - Ajax
Exactly 015.72%
Exactly 129.09%
Exactly 226.91%
Exactly 316.60%
Exactly 47.68%
Exactly 52.84%
Exactly 60.88%
Exactly 70.23%
Exact Goals Scored - NEC Nijmegen
Exactly 038.82%
Exactly 136.73%
Exactly 217.38%
Exactly 35.48%
Exactly 41.30%
Exactly 50.25%
Exact Goals Scored - First Half
Exactly 027.40%
Exactly 222.96%
Exactly 43.21%
Exactly 60.18%
 
Exactly 135.47%
Exactly 39.91%
Exactly 50.83%
Exact Goals Scored - First Half - Ajax
Exactly 042.46%
Exactly 136.37%
Exactly 215.58%
Exactly 34.45%
Exactly 40.95%
Exactly 50.16%
Exact Goals Scored - First Half - NEC Nijmegen
Exactly 064.53%
Exactly 128.27%
Exactly 26.19%
Exactly 30.90%

Alternate Props

Spread

Ajax
Wins by 2+ goals34.02%
Wins by 3+ goals15.98%
Wins by 4+ goals6.17%
Wins by 5+ goals1.98%
NEC Nijmegen
Wins by 2+ goals6.33%
Wins by 3+ goals1.62%
Wins by 4+ goals0.31%

Exact Winning Margin

Ajax
NEC Nijmegen
5
4
3
2
1
D
1
2
3
4
Ajax
Wins by 1 goal24.52%
Wins by 2 goals18.04%
Wins by 3 goals9.81%
Wins by 4 goals4.19%
Wins by 5 goals1.46%
NEC Nijmegen
Wins by 1 goal12.54%
Wins by 2 goals4.72%
Wins by 3 goals1.30%
Wins by 4 goals0.28%

Total Goals Over/Under

OverUnder
0.593.90%6.10%
1.576.83%23.17%
2.552.97%47.03%
3.530.73%69.27%
4.515.18%84.82%
5.56.48%93.52%
6.52.43%97.57%

Total Goals Ajax Over/Under

OverUnder
0.584.28%15.72%
1.555.19%44.81%
2.528.29%71.71%
3.511.69%88.31%
4.54.02%95.98%
5.51.17%98.83%

Total Goals NEC Nijmegen Over/Under

OverUnder
0.561.18%38.82%
1.524.45%75.55%
2.57.07%92.93%
3.51.59%98.41%

Total Goals - First Half Over/Under

OverUnder
0.572.60%27.40%
1.537.13%62.87%
2.514.17%85.83%
3.54.26%95.74%
4.51.05%98.95%

Score Props

Correct Score

Ajax
NEC Nijmegen
Score01234
0
6.10%
5.77%
2.73%
0.86%
0.20%
1
11.29%
10.68%
5.05%
1.59%
0.38%
2
10.45%
9.88%
4.68%
1.47%
0.35%
3
6.44%
6.10%
2.88%
0.91%
0.22%
4
2.98%
2.82%
1.33%
0.42%
0.10%
5
1.10%
1.04%
0.49%
0.16%
0.04%
Ajax
1-011.29%
2-010.45%
2-19.88%
3-06.44%
3-16.10%
3-22.88%
4-02.98%
4-12.82%
4-21.33%
4-30.42%
5-01.10%
5-11.04%
5-20.49%
5-30.16%
Draw
0-06.10%
1-110.68%
2-24.68%
3-30.91%
NEC Nijmegen
0-15.77%
0-22.73%
1-25.05%
0-30.86%
1-31.59%
2-31.47%
0-40.20%
1-40.38%
2-40.35%
3-40.22%

Correct Score - First Half

Ajax
NEC Nijmegen
Score0123
0
27.40%
12.00%
2.63%
0.38%
1
23.47%
10.28%
2.25%
0.33%
2
10.05%
4.40%
0.96%
0.14%
3
2.87%
1.26%
0.28%
0.04%
4
0.61%
0.27%
0.06%
0.01%
5
0.11%
0.05%
0.01%
0.00%
Ajax
1-023.47%
2-010.05%
2-14.40%
3-02.87%
3-11.26%
3-20.28%
4-00.61%
4-10.27%
5-00.11%
Draw
0-027.40%
1-110.28%
2-20.96%
NEC Nijmegen
0-112.00%
0-22.63%
1-22.25%
0-30.38%
1-30.33%
2-30.14%