Ajax at NEC Nijmegen

Updated

Ajax

64.1%20.5%15.4%
Ajax WinDrawWin
2.04Projected Goals 0.88
2Final Score 1

NEC Nijmegen

Last 5 Games

Ajax
Money Line
W 0-5 vs Vitesse-335
T 2-2 at Almere City-185
W 1-4 vs Heerenveen-260
W 0-2 vs Volendam-440
L 2-5 at PSV Eindhoven+900
NEC Nijmegen
Money Line
T 1-1 vs Go Ahead Eagles+135
T 3-3 at Twente+825
T 3-3 vs Volendam-170
W 2-1 at AZ Alkmaar+950
T 1-1 vs Almere City-120

Money Line Analysis

Implied Margin

Using the best lines from multiple sportsbooks, this would be the % take from the consensus sportsbook if bets were even on each side.

More on Implied Margin
:
2.1%

Implied Margin

Using the best lines from multiple sportsbooks, this would be the % take from the consensus sportsbook if bets were even on each side.

More on Implied Margin
:
4.9%
 Open LineHeritageBovadaBetOnlineYouWagerSportsBettingBest Line

No-Vig Odds

Using a market maker sportsbook, this is what the line would be if there was no vigorish (sportsbook fee) in the price.

More on No-Vig Odds
Ajax-120-107-120-112-116-112-107-101.1
NEC Nijmegen+290+260+275+263+279+263+279+281.4
Draw+320+307+290+305+316+305+316+325.5
 Open LineSouth PointCircaCaesarsStationsWestgateBest Line

No-Vig Odds

Using a market maker sportsbook, this is what the line would be if there was no vigorish (sportsbook fee) in the price.

More on No-Vig Odds
Ajax-135-----140-140-101.1
NEC Nijmegen+315----+330+330+281.4
Draw+325----+325+325+325.5

Overall

Bet Value Inactive
Ajax: 30.0%
Bet Value Inactive
NEC Nijmegen: 0.0%

Base Rating

Our analytical projection of the match in relation to the implied probability to win from the sportsbooks.

More on Base Rating

Ajax: 40.0%
NEC Nijmegen: 0.0%

Bet Trends

Doing an analysis on the betting data, we project which team has which team has an edge.

More on Bet Trends

Sharp Line

Our proprietary formula predicting which direction the line will move.

More on Sharp Line

Ajax: 0.0%
NEC Nijmegen: 10.0%

Latest ML

Steam Move

A quick and uniform line move across every sportsbook. Usually caused by an injury or deep-pocketed sharp bettor.

More on Steam Move

Ajax ML moved from -120 to -135
NEC Nijmegen ML moved from +270 to +260

Overall

Bet Value Inactive
Ajax: 0.0%
Bet Value Inactive
NEC Nijmegen: 50.0%

Base Rating

Our analytical projection of the match in relation to the implied probability to win from the sportsbooks.

More on Base Rating

Ajax: 30.0%
NEC Nijmegen: 0.0%

Bet Trends

Doing an analysis on the betting data, we project which team has which team has an edge.

More on Bet Trends

Sharp Line

Our proprietary formula predicting which direction the line will move.

More on Sharp Line

Ajax: 0.0%
NEC Nijmegen: 80.0%

Latest ML

Steam Move

A quick and uniform line move across every sportsbook. Usually caused by an injury or deep-pocketed sharp bettor.

More on Steam Move

No Steam Moves On Ajax ML
No Steam Moves On NEC Nijmegen ML

Over/Under Analysis

Implied Margin

Using the best lines from multiple sportsbooks, this would be the % take from the consensus sportsbook if bets were even on each side.

More on Implied Margin
:
1.6%
 Open LineHeritageBovadaBetOnlineYouWagerSportsBettingBest Line

No-Vig Odds

Using a market maker sportsbook, this is what the line would be if there was no vigorish (sportsbook fee) in the price.

More on No-Vig Odds
Overo3-133o3½+117o3¼-112o3¼-103o3¼-106o3¼-103o3¼-103o3¼+106
Underu3+113u3½-139u3¼-108u3¼-117u3¼-112u3¼-117u3½-139u3¼-106
 Open LineSouth PointCircaCaesarsStationsWestgateBest Line

No-Vig Odds

Using a market maker sportsbook, this is what the line would be if there was no vigorish (sportsbook fee) in the price.

More on No-Vig Odds
Over-----o3¼+106
Under-----u3¼-106

Overall

Bet Value Inactive
Over: 0.0%
Bet Value Inactive
Under: 10.0%

Base Rating

Our analytical projection of the match in relation to the implied probability to win from the sportsbooks.

More on Base Rating

Over: 0.0%
Under: 10.0%

Bet Trends

Doing an analysis on the betting data, we project which team has which team has an edge.

More on Bet Trends

Sharp Line

Our proprietary formula predicting which direction the line will move.

More on Sharp Line

Over: 0.0%
Under: 0.0%

Latest O/U

Steam Move

A quick and uniform line move across every sportsbook. Usually caused by an injury or deep-pocketed sharp bettor.

More on Steam Move

No Steam Moves On Over
No Steam Moves On Under

Goal Props

Both Teams to Score
Yes50.9%
 
No49.1%

Total Goals

0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
Exact Goals Scored - Overall
Exactly 05.42%
Exactly 223.03%
Exactly 416.31%
Exactly 64.62%
Exactly 80.70%
 
Exactly 115.80%
Exactly 322.38%
Exactly 59.51%
Exactly 71.92%
Exactly 90.23%
Exact Goals Scored - Ajax
Exactly 013.08%
Exactly 126.60%
Exactly 227.06%
Exactly 318.35%
Exactly 49.33%
Exactly 53.80%
Exactly 61.29%
Exactly 70.37%
Exact Goals Scored - NEC Nijmegen
Exactly 041.44%
Exactly 136.51%
Exactly 216.08%
Exactly 34.72%
Exactly 41.04%
Exactly 50.18%
Exact Goals Scored - First Half
Exactly 025.93%
Exactly 223.62%
Exactly 43.59%
Exactly 60.22%
 
Exactly 135.00%
Exactly 310.63%
Exactly 50.97%
Exact Goals Scored - First Half - Ajax
Exactly 038.99%
Exactly 136.72%
Exactly 217.30%
Exactly 35.43%
Exactly 41.28%
Exactly 50.24%
Exact Goals Scored - First Half - NEC Nijmegen
Exactly 066.50%
Exactly 127.13%
Exactly 25.53%
Exactly 30.75%

Alternate Props

Spread

Ajax
Wins by 2+ goals39.70%
Wins by 3+ goals20.09%
Wins by 4+ goals8.41%
Wins by 5+ goals2.93%
NEC Nijmegen
Wins by 2+ goals4.83%
Wins by 3+ goals1.15%
Wins by 4+ goals0.21%

Exact Winning Margin

Ajax
NEC Nijmegen
5
4
3
2
1
D
1
2
3
4
Ajax
Wins by 1 goal24.33%
Wins by 2 goals19.61%
Wins by 3 goals11.69%
Wins by 4 goals5.48%
Wins by 5 goals2.10%
NEC Nijmegen
Wins by 1 goal10.54%
Wins by 2 goals3.67%
Wins by 3 goals0.94%
Wins by 4 goals0.18%

Total Goals Over/Under

OverUnder
0.594.58%5.42%
1.578.78%21.22%
2.555.76%44.24%
3.533.38%66.62%
4.517.07%82.93%
5.57.56%92.44%
6.52.94%97.06%
7.51.02%98.98%

Total Goals Ajax Over/Under

OverUnder
0.586.92%13.08%
1.560.32%39.68%
2.533.26%66.74%
3.514.91%85.09%
4.55.58%94.42%
5.51.78%98.22%

Total Goals NEC Nijmegen Over/Under

OverUnder
0.558.56%41.44%
1.522.06%77.94%
2.55.98%94.02%
3.51.25%98.75%

Total Goals - First Half Over/Under

OverUnder
0.574.07%25.93%
1.539.07%60.93%
2.515.45%84.55%
3.54.82%95.18%
4.51.24%98.76%

Score Props

Correct Score

Ajax
NEC Nijmegen
Score01234
0
5.42%
4.77%
2.10%
0.62%
0.14%
1
11.02%
9.71%
4.28%
1.26%
0.28%
2
11.21%
9.88%
4.35%
1.28%
0.28%
3
7.60%
6.70%
2.95%
0.87%
0.19%
4
3.87%
3.41%
1.50%
0.44%
0.10%
5
1.57%
1.39%
0.61%
0.18%
0.04%
Ajax
1-011.02%
2-011.21%
2-19.88%
3-07.60%
3-16.70%
3-22.95%
4-03.87%
4-13.41%
4-21.50%
4-30.44%
5-01.57%
5-11.39%
5-20.61%
5-30.18%
Draw
0-05.42%
1-19.71%
2-24.35%
3-30.87%
NEC Nijmegen
0-14.77%
0-22.10%
1-24.28%
0-30.62%
1-31.26%
2-31.28%
0-40.14%
1-40.28%
2-40.28%
3-40.19%

Correct Score - First Half

Ajax
NEC Nijmegen
Score0123
0
25.93%
10.58%
2.16%
0.29%
1
24.42%
9.96%
2.03%
0.28%
2
11.50%
4.69%
0.96%
0.13%
3
3.61%
1.47%
0.30%
0.04%
4
0.85%
0.35%
0.07%
0.01%
5
0.16%
0.07%
0.01%
0.00%
Ajax
1-024.42%
2-011.50%
2-14.69%
3-03.61%
3-11.47%
3-20.30%
4-00.85%
4-10.35%
5-00.16%
Draw
0-025.93%
1-19.96%
2-20.96%
NEC Nijmegen
0-110.58%
0-22.16%
1-22.03%
0-30.29%
1-30.28%
2-30.13%