Nacional at Arouca

Updated

Nacional

18.7%24.1%57.2%
WinDrawArouca Win
0.85Projected Goals 1.68
0Final Score 1

Arouca

Last 5 Games

Nacional
Money Line
L 6-1 vs Sporting CP+1000
T 1-1 at AVS+255
L 2-1 vs Rio Ave+425
L 0-3 at Famalicao+315
L 3-1 vs Benfica+675
Arouca
Money Line
L 1-3 at Moreirense+285
L 1-0 vs Vitoria+220
L 3-1 vs Vitoria+195
L 0-5 at Benfica+810
T 0-0 vs Estrela+110

Money Line Analysis

Implied Margin

Using the best lines from multiple sportsbooks, this would be the % take from the consensus sportsbook if bets were even on each side.

More on Implied Margin
:3.6%

Implied Margin

Using the best lines from multiple sportsbooks, this would be the % take from the consensus sportsbook if bets were even on each side.

More on Implied Margin
:5.0%
 Open LineHeritageBovadaBetOnlineYouWagerSportsBettingBest Line

No-Vig Odds

Using a market maker sportsbook, this is what the line would be if there was no vigorish (sportsbook fee) in the price.

More on No-Vig Odds
Nacional+320+321+310+275+316+275+321+304.1
Arouca-115-116-120-116-117-116-116+100.7
Draw+235+278+260+265+281+265+281+293.4
 Open LineSouth PointCircaWynnStationsWestgateBest Line

No-Vig Odds

Using a market maker sportsbook, this is what the line would be if there was no vigorish (sportsbook fee) in the price.

More on No-Vig Odds
Nacional+270----+280+280+304.1
Arouca+100----+100+100+100.7
Draw+255----+245+245+293.4

Overall

Bet Value Inactive
Nacional: 0.0%
Bet Value Inactive
Arouca: 10.0%

Base Rating

Our analytical projection of the match in relation to the implied probability to win from the sportsbooks.

More on Base Rating

Nacional: 0.0%
Arouca: 30.0%

Bet Trends

Doing an analysis on the betting data, we project which team has which team has an edge.

More on Bet Trends

Nacional: 0.0%

Sharp Line

Our proprietary formula predicting which direction the line will move.

More on Sharp Line

Nacional: 20.0%
Arouca: 0.0%

Latest ML

Steam Move

A quick and uniform line move across every sportsbook. Usually caused by an injury or deep-pocketed sharp bettor.

More on Steam Move

Nacional ML moved from +285 to +275
Arouca ML moved from -114 to -120

Overall

Bet Value Inactive
Nacional: 0.0%
Bet Value Inactive
Arouca: 70.0%

Base Rating

Our analytical projection of the match in relation to the implied probability to win from the sportsbooks.

More on Base Rating

Nacional: 0.0%
Arouca: 40.0%

Bet Trends

Doing an analysis on the betting data, we project which team has which team has an edge.

More on Bet Trends

Nacional: 0.0%

Sharp Line

Our proprietary formula predicting which direction the line will move.

More on Sharp Line

Nacional: 0.0%
Arouca: 30.0%

Latest ML

Steam Move

A quick and uniform line move across every sportsbook. Usually caused by an injury or deep-pocketed sharp bettor.

More on Steam Move

Nacional ML moved from +260 to +245
Arouca ML moved from +115 to +100

Over/Under Analysis

Implied Margin

Using the best lines from multiple sportsbooks, this would be the % take from the consensus sportsbook if bets were even on each side.

More on Implied Margin
:2.9%
 Open LineHeritageBovadaBetOnlineYouWagerSportsBettingBest Line

No-Vig Odds

Using a market maker sportsbook, this is what the line would be if there was no vigorish (sportsbook fee) in the price.

More on No-Vig Odds
Overo2½-122o2½-132o2¾-105o2¾+100o2¾-103o2¾+100o2½-132o2¾+109
Underu2½+102u2½+113u2¾-115u2¾-120u2¾-115u2¾-120u2¾-115u2¾-109
 Open LineSouth PointCircaWynnStationsWestgateBest Line

No-Vig Odds

Using a market maker sportsbook, this is what the line would be if there was no vigorish (sportsbook fee) in the price.

More on No-Vig Odds
Over-----o2¾+109
Under-----u2¾-109

Overall

Bet Value Inactive
Over: 0.0%
Bet Value Inactive
Under: 10.0%

Base Rating

Our analytical projection of the match in relation to the implied probability to win from the sportsbooks.

More on Base Rating

Over: 0.0%
Under: 10.0%

Bet Trends

Doing an analysis on the betting data, we project which team has which team has an edge.

More on Bet Trends

Over: 0.0%

Sharp Line

Our proprietary formula predicting which direction the line will move.

More on Sharp Line

Over: 0.0%
Under: 0.0%

Latest O/U

Steam Move

A quick and uniform line move across every sportsbook. Usually caused by an injury or deep-pocketed sharp bettor.

More on Steam Move

The Over moved from o2½-130 to o2¾-130
The Under moved from u2¾+110 to u2¾-125

Goal Props

Both Teams to Score
Yes46.4%
 
No53.6%

Total Goals

0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
Exact Goals Scored - Overall
Exactly 07.99%
Exactly 225.51%
Exactly 413.58%
Exactly 62.89%
Exactly 80.33%
 
Exactly 120.19%
Exactly 321.49%
Exactly 56.86%
Exactly 71.04%
Exact Goals Scored - Nacional
Exactly 042.93%
Exactly 136.30%
Exactly 215.35%
Exactly 34.33%
Exactly 40.91%
Exactly 50.15%
Exact Goals Scored - Arouca
Exactly 018.61%
Exactly 131.29%
Exactly 226.31%
Exactly 314.74%
Exactly 46.20%
Exactly 52.08%
Exactly 60.58%
Exactly 70.14%
Exact Goals Scored - First Half
Exactly 031.04%
Exactly 221.24%
Exactly 42.42%
Exactly 60.11%
 
Exactly 136.31%
Exactly 38.28%
Exactly 50.57%
Exact Goals Scored - First Half - Nacional
Exactly 067.60%
Exactly 126.47%
Exactly 25.18%
Exactly 30.68%
Exact Goals Scored - First Half - Arouca
Exactly 045.91%
Exactly 135.74%
Exactly 213.91%
Exactly 33.61%
Exactly 40.70%
Exactly 50.11%

Alternate Props

Spread

Nacional
Wins by 2+ goals5.85%
Wins by 3+ goals1.38%
Wins by 4+ goals0.25%
Arouca
Wins by 2+ goals31.62%
Wins by 3+ goals13.93%
Wins by 4+ goals5.00%
Wins by 5+ goals1.49%
Wins by 6+ goals0.36%

Exact Winning Margin

Nacional
Arouca
4
3
2
1
D
1
2
3
4
5
6
Nacional
Wins by 1 goal12.84%
Wins by 2 goals4.47%
Wins by 3 goals1.13%
Wins by 4 goals0.22%
Arouca
Wins by 1 goal25.54%
Wins by 2 goals17.69%
Wins by 3 goals8.93%
Wins by 4 goals3.51%
Wins by 5 goals1.13%
Wins by 6 goals0.30%

Total Goals Over/Under

OverUnder
0.592.01%7.99%
1.571.82%28.18%
2.546.31%53.69%
3.524.82%75.18%
4.511.25%88.75%
5.54.38%95.62%
6.51.50%98.50%

Total Goals Nacional Over/Under

OverUnder
0.557.07%42.93%
1.520.77%79.23%
2.55.42%94.58%
3.51.09%98.91%

Total Goals Arouca Over/Under

OverUnder
0.581.39%18.61%
1.550.09%49.91%
2.523.79%76.21%
3.59.04%90.96%
4.52.84%97.16%

Total Goals - First Half Over/Under

OverUnder
0.568.96%31.04%
1.532.65%67.35%
2.511.41%88.59%
3.53.12%96.88%

Score Props

Correct Score

Nacional
Arouca
Score012345
0
7.99%
13.43%
11.29%
6.33%
2.66%
0.89%
1
6.76%
11.36%
9.55%
5.35%
2.25%
0.76%
2
2.86%
4.80%
4.04%
2.26%
0.95%
0.32%
3
0.81%
1.35%
1.14%
0.64%
0.27%
0.09%
4
0.17%
0.29%
0.24%
0.13%
0.06%
0.02%
Nacional
1-06.76%
2-02.86%
2-14.80%
3-00.81%
3-11.35%
3-21.14%
4-00.17%
4-10.29%
4-20.24%
4-30.13%
Draw
0-07.99%
1-111.36%
2-24.04%
3-30.64%
Arouca
0-113.43%
0-211.29%
1-29.55%
0-36.33%
1-35.35%
2-32.26%
0-42.66%
1-42.25%
2-40.95%
3-40.27%
0-50.89%
1-50.76%
2-50.32%

Correct Score - First Half

Nacional
Arouca
Score01234
0
31.04%
24.16%
9.40%
2.44%
0.47%
1
12.15%
9.46%
3.68%
0.96%
0.19%
2
2.38%
1.85%
0.72%
0.19%
0.04%
3
0.31%
0.24%
0.09%
0.02%
0.00%
Nacional
1-012.15%
2-02.38%
2-11.85%
3-00.31%
3-10.24%
Draw
0-031.04%
1-19.46%
2-20.72%
Arouca
0-124.16%
0-29.40%
1-23.68%
0-32.44%
1-30.96%
2-30.19%
0-40.47%
1-40.19%
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