Portugal Primeira Liga Predictions

Updated

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Completed Games

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		Final
Goals		Sportsbook
Log Loss		DRatings
Log Loss
Braga
Arouca		54.3%
20.9%		24.8%
-129
+374
-140
+375
2
1		-0.60543-0.58805-0.61011
Moreirense
Vitoria		18.0%
58.3%		23.6%
+404
-119
+390
-120
0
1		-0.64192-0.65737-0.53912
Famalicao
AVS		33.0%
38.8%		28.2%
+138
+256
+145
+225
3
2		-0.90199-0.94410-1.10821
Boavista
Gil Vicente FC		21.6%
52.8%		25.6%
+392
-130
+420
-140
2
1		-1.64227-1.70068-1.53326
Benfica
SC Farense		76.1%
8.3%		15.6%
-726
+2046
-660
+1625
2
1		-0.16772-0.19120-0.27271
Casa Pia AC
Rio Ave		20.2%
54.3%		25.5%
+219
+143
+205
+150
2
2		-1.19557-1.18061-1.36520
Estrela
Sporting CP		3.9%
86.1%		10.0%
+2400
-1200
+2600
-1500
1
5		-0.13223-0.11472-0.15007
Porto
AVS		70.6%
11.0%		18.4%
-320
+700
-300
+800
5
0		-0.35528-0.33798-0.34832
Vitoria
Estrela		51.1%
22.9%		26.0%
-135
+405
-130
+425
2
2		-1.31763-1.27239-1.34877
Rio Ave
Benfica		4.7%
84.1%		11.2%
+1904
-682
+1850
-800
0
5		-0.16918-0.16779-0.17271
SC Farense
Braga		8.5%
75.6%		15.9%
+901
-296
+800
-325
0
2		-0.31729-0.31680-0.27918
Sporting CP
Famalicao		67.6%
13.2%		19.1%
-321
+984
-340
+1000
3
0		-0.30393-0.30882-0.39162
Moreirense
Boavista		40.8%
30.7%		28.5%
+140
+237
+125
+255
2
0		-0.90981-0.86353-0.89688
Arouca
Estoril		35.6%
33.8%		30.6%
+151
+214
+140
+220
1
4		-1.17318-1.21362-1.08379
Gil Vicente FC
Santa Clara		21.2%
53.2%		25.6%
+311
+113
+290
+115
1
2		-0.79496-0.81369-0.63096
Nacional
Casa Pia AC		23.3%
51.2%		25.5%
+244
+128
+230
+125
0
1		-0.85334-0.86022-0.66996
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Season Prediction Results

 GamesRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks10-0-1 (0.500)0-1.21100 
Sportsbooks10-0-1 (0.500)0-1.19548 
DRatings10-0-1 (0.500)0-1.30619
-0.09519
-0.11071

Predictions Methodology

The Portuguese Liga (Primeira Liga) consists of 18 teams. As with many other European leagues, teams progress throughout the season using the process of promotion and relegation, with the two lowest teams relegated to Segunda Liga, and the two highest teams moving up to join the Primeira Liga. The league became official in 1938, after four years as an experimental league, and has since improved its reputation within the UEFA (Union of European Football Associations).