Portugal Primeira Liga Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Games for January 3, 2025

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		GoalsTotal
Goals		Best
O/U

Bet Value

We use three different graphics to describe Bet Value within a matchup.

More on Bet Value
More Details
Porto
Nacional 		74.7%
9.1%		16.1%


2.37
0.70		3.07


Sporting CP
Vitoria 		54.6%
20.8%		24.6%


1.65
0.91		2.56


Games for Dec 30, 2024
Games for Jan 4, 2025

Completed Games

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		Final
Goals		Sportsbook
Log Loss		DRatings
Log Loss
Sporting CP
Gil Vicente FC		70.9%
10.8%		18.3%
-275
+729
-295
+700
0
0		-1.72177-1.75701-1.69701
Braga
Santa Clara		50.2%
24.2%		25.6%
+149
+227
+135
+235
2
0		-0.93392-0.90503-0.68995
Porto
Moreirense		56.7%
19.3%		24.0%
-210
+628
-205
+575
3
0		-0.42917-0.44626-0.56734
AVS
Boavista		25.0%
48.4%		26.6%
+227
+147
+235
+135
0
0		-1.16190-1.16575-1.32242
SC Farense
Famalicao		15.3%
63.1%		21.6%
+346
-101
+340
-105
2
1		-1.52092-1.53229-1.87804
Arouca
Casa Pia AC		27.6%
44.0%		28.4%
+250
+142
+215
+150
1
3		-0.91990-0.96582-0.82066
Benfica
Nacional		77.1%
8.2%		14.6%


2
0		-0.25961
Vitoria
Rio Ave		45.9%
26.1%		28.0%
-118
+367
-110
+340
2
2		-1.30339-1.25734-1.27297
Estrela
Porto		5.3%
82.5%		12.1%
+1747
-625
+1700
-710
0
2		-0.18659-0.18032-0.19244
Famalicao
Braga		11.4%
71.3%		17.3%
+493
-168
+500
-175
3
3		-1.44587-1.44745-1.75603
Casa Pia AC
Estoril		29.9%
41.3%		28.8%
+180
+197
+190
+190
2
0		-1.06758-1.11045-1.20681
Benfica
AVS		78.2%
7.5%		14.3%
-520
+1200
-625
+1525
1
1		-1.96369-2.12695-1.94526
Santa Clara
Arouca		32.0%
38.1%		29.9%
+142
+241
+140
+240
0
1		-1.25635-1.27232-0.96464
Boavista
Sporting CP		3.3%
87.9%		8.8%
+1898
-800
+1850
-1000
2
3		-0.15627-0.14531-0.12902
Gil Vicente FC
SC Farense		34.7%
34.6%		30.8%
+183
+172
+210
+150
1
0		-1.07899-1.18061-1.05981
Arouca
Estrela		21.9%
51.8%		26.3%
+170
+180
+180
+170
1
2		-1.07362-1.04214-0.65811
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Season Prediction Results

 GamesRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks21-0-1 (0.750)0-1.32784 
Sportsbooks21-0-1 (0.750)0-1.33102 
DRatings21-0-1 (0.750)0-1.19348
0.13436
0.13754

Predictions Methodology

The Portuguese Liga (Primeira Liga) consists of 18 teams. As with many other European leagues, teams progress throughout the season using the process of promotion and relegation, with the two lowest teams relegated to Segunda Liga, and the two highest teams moving up to join the Primeira Liga. The league became official in 1938, after four years as an experimental league, and has since improved its reputation within the UEFA (Union of European Football Associations).