Derby County at Watford

Updated

Derby County

22.3%25.8%51.8%
Derby County WinDrawWatford Win
0.90Projected Goals 1.53
1Final Score 2

Watford

Last 5 Games

Derby County
Money Line
W 0-1 vs Middlesbrough+250
L 2-4 at Blackburn+225
L 1-0 vs Cardiff City+120
W 2-0 at Blackpool+375
L 3-1 vs Bristol City+170
Watford
Money Line
W 0-3 vs Stoke City+170
W 3-2 at Millwall+215
L 1-3 at Middlesbrough+340
W 0-1 vs Sunderland+135
T 0-0 vs Hull City+190

Money Line Analysis

Implied Margin

Using the best lines from multiple sportsbooks, this would be the % take from the consensus sportsbook if bets were even on each side.

More on Implied Margin
:3.4%

Implied Margin

Using the best lines from multiple sportsbooks, this would be the % take from the consensus sportsbook if bets were even on each side.

More on Implied Margin
:4.9%
 Open LineHeritageBovadaBetOnlineYouWagerSportsBettingBest Line

No-Vig Odds

Using a market maker sportsbook, this is what the line would be if there was no vigorish (sportsbook fee) in the price.

More on No-Vig Odds
Derby County+300+318+310+275+323+275+323+307.7
Watford-110-109-115-115-112-115-109+103.3
Draw+230+259+235+250+261+250+261+280.5
 Open LineSouth PointCircaWynnStationsWestgateBest Line

No-Vig Odds

Using a market maker sportsbook, this is what the line would be if there was no vigorish (sportsbook fee) in the price.

More on No-Vig Odds
Derby County+290---+280+300+300+307.7
Watford-105----135-110-110+103.3
Draw+255---+245+260+260+280.5

Overall

Bet Value Inactive
Derby County: 10.0%
Bet Value Inactive
Watford: 0.0%

Base Rating

Our analytical projection of the match in relation to the implied probability to win from the sportsbooks.

More on Base Rating

Derby County: 0.0%
Watford: 10.0%

Bet Trends

Doing an analysis on the betting data, we project which team has which team has an edge.

More on Bet Trends

Derby County: 0.0%

Sharp Line

Our proprietary formula predicting which direction the line will move.

More on Sharp Line

Derby County: 20.0%
Watford: 0.0%

Latest ML

Steam Move

A quick and uniform line move across every sportsbook. Usually caused by an injury or deep-pocketed sharp bettor.

More on Steam Move

Derby County ML moved from +321 to +311
Watford ML moved from -108 to -116

Overall

Bet Value Inactive
Derby County: 0.0%
Bet Value Inactive
Watford: 10.0%

Base Rating

Our analytical projection of the match in relation to the implied probability to win from the sportsbooks.

More on Base Rating

Derby County: 0.0%
Watford: 10.0%

Bet Trends

Doing an analysis on the betting data, we project which team has which team has an edge.

More on Bet Trends

Derby County: 0.0%

Sharp Line

Our proprietary formula predicting which direction the line will move.

More on Sharp Line

Derby County: 0.0%
Watford: 0.0%

Latest ML

Steam Move

A quick and uniform line move across every sportsbook. Usually caused by an injury or deep-pocketed sharp bettor.

More on Steam Move

No Steam Moves On Derby County ML
Watford ML moved from -120 to -135

Over/Under Analysis

Implied Margin

Using the best lines from multiple sportsbooks, this would be the % take from the consensus sportsbook if bets were even on each side.

More on Implied Margin
:2.3%
 Open LineHeritageBovadaBetOnlineYouWagerSportsBettingBest Line

No-Vig Odds

Using a market maker sportsbook, this is what the line would be if there was no vigorish (sportsbook fee) in the price.

More on No-Vig Odds
Overo2½-110o2½-105o2½+100o2½+102o2½-101o2½+102o2½+102o2½+111
Underu2½-110u2½-112u2½-120u2½-122u2½-117u2½-122u2½-112u2½-111
 Open LineSouth PointCircaWynnStationsWestgateBest Line

No-Vig Odds

Using a market maker sportsbook, this is what the line would be if there was no vigorish (sportsbook fee) in the price.

More on No-Vig Odds
Over-----o2½+111
Under-----u2½-111

Overall

Bet Value Inactive
Over: 0.0%
Bet Value Inactive
Under: 0.0%

Base Rating

Our analytical projection of the match in relation to the implied probability to win from the sportsbooks.

More on Base Rating

Over: 0.0%
Under: 0.0%

Bet Trends

Doing an analysis on the betting data, we project which team has which team has an edge.

More on Bet Trends

Over: 0.0%

Sharp Line

Our proprietary formula predicting which direction the line will move.

More on Sharp Line

Over: 0.0%
Under: 0.0%

Latest O/U

Steam Move

A quick and uniform line move across every sportsbook. Usually caused by an injury or deep-pocketed sharp bettor.

More on Steam Move

No Steam Moves On Over
No Steam Moves On Under

Goal Props

Both Teams to Score
Yes46.6%
 
No53.4%

Total Goals

0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
Exact Goals Scored - Overall
Exactly 08.81%
Exactly 226.00%
Exactly 412.79%
Exactly 62.52%
Exactly 80.27%
 
Exactly 121.40%
Exactly 321.05%
Exactly 56.21%
Exactly 70.87%
Exact Goals Scored - Derby County
Exactly 040.48%
Exactly 136.61%
Exactly 216.55%
Exactly 34.99%
Exactly 41.13%
Exactly 50.20%
Exact Goals Scored - Watford
Exactly 021.76%
Exactly 133.19%
Exactly 225.31%
Exactly 312.86%
Exactly 44.91%
Exactly 51.50%
Exactly 60.38%
Exact Goals Scored - First Half
Exactly 032.47%
Exactly 220.54%
Exactly 42.17%
 
Exactly 136.52%
Exactly 37.70%
Exactly 50.49%
Exact Goals Scored - First Half - Derby County
Exactly 065.79%
Exactly 127.55%
Exactly 25.77%
Exactly 30.80%
Exact Goals Scored - First Half - Watford
Exactly 049.36%
Exactly 134.85%
Exactly 212.30%
Exactly 32.90%
Exactly 40.51%

Alternate Props

Spread

Derby County
Wins by 2+ goals7.44%
Wins by 3+ goals1.87%
Wins by 4+ goals0.36%
Watford
Wins by 2+ goals26.61%
Wins by 3+ goals10.77%
Wins by 4+ goals3.50%
Wins by 5+ goals0.90%
Wins by 6+ goals0.15%

Exact Winning Margin

Derby County
Watford
4
3
2
1
D
1
2
3
4
5
6
Derby County
Wins by 1 goal14.88%
Wins by 2 goals5.57%
Wins by 3 goals1.51%
Wins by 4 goals0.31%
Watford
Wins by 1 goal25.09%
Wins by 2 goals15.85%
Wins by 3 goals7.27%
Wins by 4 goals2.60%
Wins by 5 goals0.74%
Wins by 6 goals0.15%

Total Goals Over/Under

OverUnder
0.591.19%8.81%
1.569.79%30.21%
2.543.80%56.20%
3.522.74%77.26%
4.59.96%90.04%
5.53.75%96.25%
6.51.23%98.77%

Total Goals Derby County Over/Under

OverUnder
0.559.52%40.48%
1.522.91%77.09%
2.56.36%93.64%
3.51.37%98.63%

Total Goals Watford Over/Under

OverUnder
0.578.24%21.76%
1.545.05%54.95%
2.519.75%80.25%
3.56.88%93.12%
4.51.98%98.02%

Total Goals - First Half Over/Under

OverUnder
0.567.53%32.47%
1.531.00%69.00%
2.510.46%89.54%
3.52.76%97.24%

Score Props

Correct Score

Derby County
Watford
Score012345
0
8.81%
13.43%
10.24%
5.21%
1.99%
0.61%
1
7.97%
12.15%
9.26%
4.71%
1.80%
0.55%
2
3.60%
5.49%
4.19%
2.13%
0.81%
0.25%
3
1.09%
1.66%
1.26%
0.64%
0.24%
0.07%
4
0.25%
0.37%
0.29%
0.15%
0.06%
0.02%
Derby County
1-07.97%
2-03.60%
2-15.49%
3-01.09%
3-11.66%
3-21.26%
4-00.25%
4-10.37%
4-20.29%
4-30.15%
Draw
0-08.81%
1-112.15%
2-24.19%
3-30.64%
Watford
0-113.43%
0-210.24%
1-29.26%
0-35.21%
1-34.71%
2-32.13%
0-41.99%
1-41.80%
2-40.81%
3-40.24%
0-50.61%
1-50.55%
2-50.25%

Correct Score - First Half

Derby County
Watford
Score01234
0
32.47%
22.93%
8.10%
1.91%
0.34%
1
13.60%
9.60%
3.39%
0.80%
0.14%
2
2.85%
2.01%
0.71%
0.17%
0.03%
3
0.40%
0.28%
0.10%
0.02%
0.00%
Derby County
1-013.60%
2-02.85%
2-12.01%
3-00.40%
3-10.28%
Draw
0-032.47%
1-19.60%
2-20.71%
Watford
0-122.93%
0-28.10%
1-23.39%
0-31.91%
1-30.80%
2-30.17%
0-40.34%
1-40.14%
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