English Premier League Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Games for November 29, 2024

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		GoalsTotal
Goals		Best
O/U

Bet Value

We use three different graphics to describe Bet Value within a matchup.

More on Bet Value
More Details
Southampton
Brighton and Hove Albion 		11.3%
71.4%		17.3%
+608
-231
+595
-250
0.80
2.32		3.12
o3¼-106
u3½-134
o3½+120
u3½-135
Games for Nov 28, 2024
Games for Nov 30, 2024

Completed Games

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		Final
Goals		Sportsbook
Log Loss		DRatings
Log Loss
Watford
Chelsea		4.1%
85.7%		10.2%
+1520
-490
+1550
-550
1
2		-0.20677-0.20636-0.15443
Newcastle United
Burnley		25.4%
48.0%		26.6%
+206
+155
+210
+138
2
1		-1.13837-1.17616-1.36959
West Ham United
Brighton and Hove Albion		33.4%
38.2%		28.4%
+173
+174
+165
+160
1
3		-1.02722-1.00444-0.96205
Leeds United
Brentford		28.0%
45.8%		26.3%
+198
+135
+190
+130
2
1		-1.10927-1.10657-1.27368
Everton
Arsenal		11.9%
70.3%		17.9%
+797
-275
+800
-295
1
5		-0.33359-0.33091-0.35310
Burnley
Aston Villa		15.4%
63.5%		21.1%
+310
+104
+290
+110
1
1		-1.26826-1.26058-1.55561
Leicester City
Chelsea		9.5%
74.9%		15.6%
+676
-225
+700
-245
1
1		-1.63041-1.62770-1.85873
Crystal Palace
Everton		25.6%
48.4%		25.9%
+378
-112
+365
-116
2
3		-0.64226-0.66116-0.72472
Liverpool
Southampton		67.6%
13.7%		18.7%
-212
+591
-235
+600
2
1		-0.40650-0.39794-0.39103
Arsenal
Newcastle United		52.1%
23.2%		24.7%
-115
+330
-120
+330
0
2		-1.48219-1.49246-1.46149
Brentford
Everton		21.6%
54.6%		23.8%
+332
-109
+320
-110
3
2		-1.48554-1.47399-1.53331
Manchester City
West Ham United		64.3%
15.5%		20.2%
-259
+723
-275
+690
2
2		-1.73812-1.69958-1.59731
Crystal Palace
Aston Villa		17.3%
60.8%		21.9%
+356
-112
+332
-110
1
1		-1.29993-1.29295-1.51919
Brighton and Hove Albion
Leeds United		30.5%
41.6%		27.9%
+170
+170
+163
+170
1
1		-1.29521-1.27801-1.27536
Leicester City
Watford		49.3%
25.3%		25.4%
-142
+415
-139
+390
5
1		-0.56359-0.58835-0.70771
Norwich City
Wolverhampton		13.6%
65.4%		21.0%
+528
-182
+555
-200
1
1		-1.52184-1.52717-1.56079
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Season Prediction Results

 GamesRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks00-0-0 (0.000)0 
Sportsbooks00-0-0 (0.000)0 
DRatings00-0-0 (0.000)0

Season Simulation

*Through all games played on or before 11/25/24
#TeamWLTPtsWin PLChamps LeagueEuropa LeagueRelegation
1Liverpool (10-1-1, 31 pts)24.66.27.181.161.2%99.2%0.6%0.0%
2Manchester City (7-3-2, 23 pts)23.37.37.477.229.0%96.5%2.5%0.0%
3Arsenal (6-2-4, 22 pts)20.07.710.270.37.1%84.2%8.4%0.0%
4Chelsea (6-2-4, 22 pts)17.89.211.064.51.8%47.9%20.2%0.0%
5Brighton and Hove Albion (6-2-4, 22 pts)16.610.211.261.00.4%24.2%20.0%0.0%
6Tottenham (6-5-1, 19 pts)17.612.48.060.80.2%27.0%17.8%0.0%
7Nottingham Forest (5-3-4, 19 pts)12.214.711.147.70.0%0.6%0.9%3.7%
8Aston Villa (5-3-4, 19 pts)15.011.811.356.20.2%8.2%9.5%0.2%
9Newcastle United (5-4-3, 18 pts)14.812.810.354.80.0%5.3%7.5%0.4%
10Fulham (5-4-3, 18 pts)13.414.510.150.30.0%1.8%2.6%1.6%
11Brentford (5-5-2, 17 pts)12.416.78.946.10.0%0.7%0.4%4.3%
12Manchester United (4-4-4, 16 pts)14.312.511.254.10.1%4.2%8.0%0.6%
13Bournemouth (4-5-3, 15 pts)11.716.110.245.30.0%0.1%0.6%7.4%
14West Ham United (4-5-3, 15 pts)11.616.110.345.20.0%0.0%0.7%8.9%
15Everton (2-5-5, 11 pts)9.616.412.040.70.0%0.1%0.2%24.9%
16Leicester City (2-6-4, 10 pts)9.117.911.038.30.0%0.0%0.0%38.9%
17Wolverhampton (2-7-3, 9 pts)9.718.210.139.20.0%0.0%0.1%32.4%
18Ipswich Town (1-5-6, 9 pts)7.218.112.734.20.0%0.0%0.0%66.6%
19Crystal Palace (1-6-5, 8 pts)9.116.912.139.20.0%0.0%0.0%30.6%
20Southampton (1-10-1, 4 pts)7.922.37.831.60.0%0.0%0.0%79.5%

Predictions Methodology

The English Premier League projections are based on our proprietary algorithm which we use to project out soccer matches. The EPL is a twenty team league which plays 38 games through out the season. Currently, the top four teams receive a draw to the Champions League and the fifth place team receives a draw to Europa League. Each year, the 18th through 20th placed team gets relegated to the English Championship division.