English Premier League Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Games for November 24, 2024

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		GoalsTotal
Goals		Best
O/U

Bet Value

We use three different graphics to describe Bet Value within a matchup.

More on Bet Value
More Details
Liverpool
Southampton 		73.6%
10.4%		16.0%
-351
+1050
-380
+1025
2.47
0.82		3.29
o3¼-112
u3½-126
o3½+110
u3½-130
Manchester United
Ipswich Town 		55.5%
20.7%		23.8%
-154
+435
-165
+435
1.72
0.95		2.67
o3-112
u3+105
o3-110
u3+100
Games for Nov 23, 2024
Games for Nov 25, 2024

Completed Games

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		Final
Goals		Sportsbook
Log Loss		DRatings
Log Loss
Brighton and Hove Albion
Arsenal		11.7%
70.2%		18.1%
+715
-259
+725
-285
1
1		-1.73036-1.74709-1.70953
Brentford
Liverpool		6.1%
81.6%		12.3%
+1200
-435
+1125
-500
0
2		-0.22999-0.22619-0.20299
Newcastle United
Bournemouth		37.4%
34.3%		28.4%
+171
+157
+170
+200
1
1		-1.33632-1.27214-1.25977
Chelsea
Wolverhampton		51.1%
22.8%		26.0%
-110
+299
-115
+330
6
2		-0.67078-0.64674-0.67053
Arsenal
Aston Villa		45.5%
28.4%		26.0%
-132
+388
-135
+360
2
0		-0.58157-0.59531-0.78667
Leicester City
Fulham		20.7%
56.4%		23.0%
+327
-110
+325
-105
1
2		-0.66961-0.69027-0.57307
Ipswich Town
Manchester City		2.7%
90.0%		7.3%
+2600
-936
+2800
-1315
1
4		-0.12508-0.11466-0.10571
West Ham United
Crystal Palace		24.0%
50.5%		25.5%
+285
-104
+287
+100
2
0		-1.37369-1.38151-1.42574
Everton
Tottenham		12.5%
69.8%		17.6%
+720
-261
+700
-250
0
4		-0.34304-0.35416-0.35916
Nottingham Forest
Southampton		25.8%
48.4%		25.8%
+212
+135
+205
+140
1
0		-1.16520-1.14895-1.35639
Manchester United
Brighton and Hove Albion		29.3%
43.8%		26.9%
+189
+142
+190
+150
1
2		-0.90728-0.92773-0.82478
Tottenham
Leicester City		58.4%
20.1%		21.5%
-141
+365
-150
+365
1
1		-1.49433-1.50512-1.53716
Manchester City
Chelsea		54.1%
21.7%		24.3%
-102
+283
+100
+270
2
0		-0.70745-0.72404-0.61522
Crystal Palace
Brentford		32.5%
38.8%		28.8%
+168
+187
+170
+175
1
2		-1.07860-1.04797-0.94765
Aston Villa
West Ham United		36.8%
35.5%		27.7%
+193
+148
+179
+145
2
1		-1.09934-1.06944-0.99951
Wolverhampton
Arsenal		6.4%
80.2%		13.3%
+1700
-640
+1825
-750
0
2		-0.17931-0.16727-0.22005
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Season Prediction Results

 GamesRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks72-3-2 (0.429)0-1.18652 
Sportsbooks72-3-2 (0.429)0-1.18702 
DRatings73-2-2 (0.571)0-1.21848
-0.03196
-0.03146

Season Simulation

*Through all games played on or before 11/10/24
#TeamWLTPtsWin PLChamps LeagueEuropa LeagueRelegation
1Liverpool (9-1-1, 28 pts)24.36.57.280.252.6%98.5%0.8%0.0%
2Manchester City (7-2-2, 23 pts)23.66.67.878.640.9%98.5%1.0%0.0%
3Chelsea (5-2-4, 19 pts)17.49.411.263.40.9%47.8%19.1%0.0%
4Arsenal (5-2-4, 19 pts)19.58.010.569.15.0%79.9%9.3%0.0%
5Nottingham Forest (5-2-4, 19 pts)12.714.211.249.20.0%1.2%1.8%2.2%
6Brighton and Hove Albion (5-2-4, 19 pts)16.010.611.459.40.2%19.5%15.1%0.0%
7Fulham (5-3-3, 18 pts)13.713.810.451.70.0%4.2%4.4%2.0%
8Newcastle United (5-3-3, 18 pts)15.112.210.656.00.1%8.8%10.7%0.3%
9Aston Villa (5-3-3, 18 pts)15.312.010.656.60.0%11.1%9.2%0.0%
10Tottenham (5-5-1, 16 pts)16.912.88.459.00.3%20.5%16.2%0.0%
11Brentford (5-5-1, 16 pts)12.816.88.446.90.0%0.5%1.3%4.8%
12Manchester United (4-4-3, 15 pts)14.912.710.455.10.0%8.9%9.2%0.4%
13Bournemouth (4-4-3, 15 pts)11.915.610.546.10.0%0.4%1.3%6.8%
14West Ham United (3-5-3, 12 pts)11.116.310.543.90.0%0.1%0.2%12.1%
15Everton (2-5-4, 10 pts)9.717.011.240.40.0%0.0%0.2%25.6%
16Leicester City (2-5-4, 10 pts)9.317.611.238.90.0%0.0%0.1%33.6%
17Ipswich Town (1-5-5, 8 pts)7.518.611.934.40.0%0.0%0.0%63.7%
18Crystal Palace (1-6-4, 7 pts)9.417.011.539.80.0%0.1%0.0%27.5%
19Wolverhampton (1-7-3, 6 pts)8.918.510.537.30.0%0.0%0.1%43.9%
20Southampton (1-9-1, 4 pts)7.921.88.232.10.0%0.0%0.0%77.1%

Predictions Methodology

The English Premier League projections are based on our proprietary algorithm which we use to project out soccer matches. The EPL is a twenty team league which plays 38 games through out the season. Currently, the top four teams receive a draw to the Champions League and the fifth place team receives a draw to Europa League. Each year, the 18th through 20th placed team gets relegated to the English Championship division.