English Premier League Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Games for November 24, 2024

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		GoalsTotal
Goals		Best
O/U

Bet Value

We use three different graphics to describe Bet Value within a matchup.

More on Bet Value
More Details
Liverpool
Southampton 		73.6%
10.4%		16.0%
-350
+1003
-380
+1025
2.47
0.82		3.29
o3¼-107
u3½-126
o3½+110
u3½-130
Volatility Bet Value Active
Manchester United
Ipswich Town 		55.5%
20.7%		23.8%
-157
+425
-165
+435
1.72
0.95		2.67
o3-112
u3+105
o3-110
u3+100
Games for Nov 23, 2024
Games for Nov 25, 2024

Completed Games

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		Final
Goals		Sportsbook
Log Loss		DRatings
Log Loss
Brighton and Hove Albion
Everton		33.9%
37.8%		28.3%
+141
+210
+160
+196
3
0		-0.90664-0.97625-1.08087
Southampton
Newcastle United		12.8%
69.0%		18.2%
+665
-247
+670
-280
0
1		-0.36729-0.35277-0.37175
Bournemouth
Nottingham Forest		32.0%
39.1%		28.9%
+233
+128
+219
+125
1
1		-1.27712-1.28710-1.24036
Liverpool
Ipswich Town		73.3%
10.0%		16.7%
-288
+713
-290
+725
2
0		-0.33193-0.32998-0.31126
Fulham
Manchester United		14.9%
64.8%		20.3%
+417
-150
+405
-156
0
1		-0.53806-0.53981-0.43464
Everton
Arsenal		8.0%
77.5%		14.4%
+1250
-447
+1200
-500
1
2		-0.21879-0.22086-0.25435
Tottenham
Sheffield United		67.7%
13.2%		19.1%
-279
+700
-297
+650
3
0		-0.33109-0.33205-0.39032
Fulham
Luton Town		50.2%
24.0%		25.7%
+120
+210
+120
+196
4
2		-0.81522-0.83298-0.68824
West Ham United
Manchester City		4.8%
84.7%		10.5%
+2800
-1300
+2750
-1750
1
3		-0.10340-0.10218-0.16596
Manchester United
Brighton and Hove Albion		30.7%
42.0%		27.4%
+143
+168
+190
+165
2
0		-0.91604-1.03911-1.18250
Wolverhampton
Liverpool		6.0%
81.2%		12.8%
+1553
-714
+1475
-750
0
2		-0.16214-0.16372-0.20838
Nottingham Forest
Burnley		20.9%
53.5%		25.6%
+135
+192
+130
+184
2
1		-0.88179-0.87849-1.56475
Bournemouth
Chelsea		9.1%
74.7%		16.3%
+598
-240
+575
-225
1
2		-0.38010-0.38815-0.29216
Newcastle United
Brentford		39.9%
32.3%		27.8%
+120
+202
+125
+200
4
2		-0.81876-0.83833-0.91889
Aston Villa
Crystal Palace		29.3%
43.4%		27.3%
+379
-153
+370
-120
0
5		-0.53340-0.58539-0.83365
Newcastle United
Manchester United		23.7%
51.6%		24.6%
+141
+177
+140
+175
2
3		-1.03851-1.04957-0.66070
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Season Prediction Results

 GamesRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks72-3-2 (0.429)0-1.18652 
Sportsbooks72-3-2 (0.429)0-1.18702 
DRatings73-2-2 (0.571)0-1.21848
-0.03196
-0.03146

Season Simulation

*Through all games played on or before 11/10/24
#TeamWLTPtsWin PLChamps LeagueEuropa LeagueRelegation
1Liverpool (9-1-1, 28 pts)24.36.57.280.252.6%98.5%0.8%0.0%
2Manchester City (7-2-2, 23 pts)23.66.67.878.640.9%98.5%1.0%0.0%
3Chelsea (5-2-4, 19 pts)17.49.411.263.40.9%47.8%19.1%0.0%
4Arsenal (5-2-4, 19 pts)19.58.010.569.15.0%79.9%9.3%0.0%
5Nottingham Forest (5-2-4, 19 pts)12.714.211.249.20.0%1.2%1.8%2.2%
6Brighton and Hove Albion (5-2-4, 19 pts)16.010.611.459.40.2%19.5%15.1%0.0%
7Fulham (5-3-3, 18 pts)13.713.810.451.70.0%4.2%4.4%2.0%
8Newcastle United (5-3-3, 18 pts)15.112.210.656.00.1%8.8%10.7%0.3%
9Aston Villa (5-3-3, 18 pts)15.312.010.656.60.0%11.1%9.2%0.0%
10Tottenham (5-5-1, 16 pts)16.912.88.459.00.3%20.5%16.2%0.0%
11Brentford (5-5-1, 16 pts)12.816.88.446.90.0%0.5%1.3%4.8%
12Manchester United (4-4-3, 15 pts)14.912.710.455.10.0%8.9%9.2%0.4%
13Bournemouth (4-4-3, 15 pts)11.915.610.546.10.0%0.4%1.3%6.8%
14West Ham United (3-5-3, 12 pts)11.116.310.543.90.0%0.1%0.2%12.1%
15Everton (2-5-4, 10 pts)9.717.011.240.40.0%0.0%0.2%25.6%
16Leicester City (2-5-4, 10 pts)9.317.611.238.90.0%0.0%0.1%33.6%
17Ipswich Town (1-5-5, 8 pts)7.518.611.934.40.0%0.0%0.0%63.7%
18Crystal Palace (1-6-4, 7 pts)9.417.011.539.80.0%0.1%0.0%27.5%
19Wolverhampton (1-7-3, 6 pts)8.918.510.537.30.0%0.0%0.1%43.9%
20Southampton (1-9-1, 4 pts)7.921.88.232.10.0%0.0%0.0%77.1%

Predictions Methodology

The English Premier League projections are based on our proprietary algorithm which we use to project out soccer matches. The EPL is a twenty team league which plays 38 games through out the season. Currently, the top four teams receive a draw to the Champions League and the fifth place team receives a draw to Europa League. Each year, the 18th through 20th placed team gets relegated to the English Championship division.