Portugal Primeira Liga Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Games for January 5, 2025

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		GoalsTotal
Goals		Best
O/U

Bet Value

We use three different graphics to describe Bet Value within a matchup.

More on Bet Value
More Details
SC Farense
Santa Clara 		16.5%
60.1%		23.4%
+479
-145
+500
-150
0.78
1.73		2.51
o2-117
u2+105

Famalicao
Casa Pia AC 		36.6%
35.0%		28.4%
+278
+119
+265
+120
1.16
1.13		2.29
o2-113
u2+100

Estoril
Estrela 		17.1%
59.4%		23.5%
+255
+130
+260
+135
0.80
1.73		2.53
o2-120
u2+100

Games for Jan 4, 2025
Games for Jan 6, 2025

Completed Games

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		Final
Goals		Sportsbook
Log Loss		DRatings
Log Loss
Estrela
SC Farense		34.4%
35.2%		30.4%
+234
+142
+190
+150
0
1		-0.91342-0.96748-1.04529
Porto
Benfica		24.4%
50.5%		25.1%
+310
-105
+295
-105
1
4		-0.70162-0.71885-0.68397
Sporting CP
Braga		48.3%
25.9%		25.8%
-156
+426
-175
+460
4
2		-0.52427-0.50099-0.72842
Vitoria
Santa Clara		39.6%
31.5%		28.9%
+188
+179
+185
+185
0
1		-1.06427-1.09862-1.15515
Nacional
Estrela		23.9%
50.2%		25.9%
+235
+129
+240
+120
0
2		-0.86607-0.83884-0.68824
Rio Ave
Boavista		33.5%
36.4%		30.0%
+165
+195
+170
+180
2
0		-1.00111-1.04214-1.09228
Arouca
Famalicao		20.6%
54.7%		24.6%
+238
+133
+260
+115
0
0		-1.20651-1.22799-1.40238
SC Farense
Casa Pia AC		26.4%
45.6%		28.0%
+326
+105
+405
-125
1
1		-1.21702-1.25973-1.27182
AVS
Estoril		30.9%
40.0%		29.1%
+265
+116
+215
+150
0
0		-1.21359-1.14819-1.23498
Gil Vicente FC
Moreirense		23.4%
50.1%		26.5%
+278
+121
+240
+130
2
3		-0.83183-0.88312-0.69213
Santa Clara
Nacional		37.9%
33.4%		28.7%
+169
+196
+150
+210
0
2		-1.11584-1.18061-1.09548
Estoril
Porto		3.3%
87.4%		9.2%
+1805
-680
+2000
-800
0
4		-0.17392-0.16733-0.13414
Braga
Arouca		54.3%
20.9%		24.8%
-129
+374
-140
+375
2
1		-0.60543-0.58805-0.61011
Moreirense
Vitoria		18.0%
58.3%		23.6%
+404
-119
+390
-120
0
1		-0.64192-0.65737-0.53912
Famalicao
AVS		33.0%
38.8%		28.2%
+138
+256
+145
+225
3
2		-0.90199-0.94410-1.10821
Boavista
Gil Vicente FC		21.6%
52.8%		25.6%
+392
-130
+420
-140
2
1		-1.64227-1.70068-1.53326
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Season Prediction Results

 GamesRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks31-1-1 (0.500)0-1.38406 
Sportsbooks31-1-1 (0.500)0-1.43889 
DRatings30-2-1 (0.167)0-1.61285
-0.22878
-0.17396

Predictions Methodology

The Portuguese Liga (Primeira Liga) consists of 18 teams. As with many other European leagues, teams progress throughout the season using the process of promotion and relegation, with the two lowest teams relegated to Segunda Liga, and the two highest teams moving up to join the Primeira Liga. The league became official in 1938, after four years as an experimental league, and has since improved its reputation within the UEFA (Union of European Football Associations).