Nacional at Estrela

Updated

Nacional

23.9%25.9%50.2%
Nacional WinDrawEstrela Win
0.96Projected Goals 1.52
0Final Score 2

Estrela

Last 5 Games

Nacional
Money Line
W 0-2 vs Santa Clara+210
L 0-1 at Casa Pia AC+230
T 0-0 at Famalicao+425
L 3-0 vs Braga+410
L 0-1 at Estoril+185
Estrela
Money Line
L 1-5 at Sporting CP+2600
T 2-2 vs Vitoria+425
L 0-3 at Gil Vicente FC+350
W 1-2 vs Moreirense+210
L 0-1 at Santa Clara+400

Money Line Analysis

Implied Margin

Using the best lines from multiple sportsbooks, this would be the % take from the consensus sportsbook if bets were even on each side.

More on Implied Margin
:3.7%

Implied Margin

Using the best lines from multiple sportsbooks, this would be the % take from the consensus sportsbook if bets were even on each side.

More on Implied Margin
:4.9%
 Open LineHeritageBovadaBetOnlineYouWagerSportsBettingBest Line

No-Vig Odds

Using a market maker sportsbook, this is what the line would be if there was no vigorish (sportsbook fee) in the price.

More on No-Vig Odds
Nacional+225-+230+205+235+205+235+228.5
Estrela+120-+120+129+119+129+129+146.6
Draw+225-+220+220+230+220+230+244.7
 Open LineSouth PointCircaWynnStationsWestgateBest Line

No-Vig Odds

Using a market maker sportsbook, this is what the line would be if there was no vigorish (sportsbook fee) in the price.

More on No-Vig Odds
Nacional+240----+240+240+228.5
Estrela+120----+120+120+146.6
Draw+230----+230+230+244.7

Overall

Bet Value Inactive
Nacional: 10.0%
Bet Value Inactive
Estrela: 0.0%

Base Rating

Our analytical projection of the match in relation to the implied probability to win from the sportsbooks.

More on Base Rating

Nacional: 0.0%
Estrela: 30.0%

Bet Trends

Doing an analysis on the betting data, we project which team has which team has an edge.

More on Bet Trends

Nacional: 10.0%

Sharp Line

Our proprietary formula predicting which direction the line will move.

More on Sharp Line

Nacional: 30.0%
Estrela: 0.0%

Latest ML

Steam Move

A quick and uniform line move across every sportsbook. Usually caused by an injury or deep-pocketed sharp bettor.

More on Steam Move

Nacional ML moved from +220 to +205
Estrela ML moved from +128 to +120

Overall

Bet Value Inactive
Nacional: 10.0%
Bet Value Inactive
Estrela: 0.0%

Base Rating

Our analytical projection of the match in relation to the implied probability to win from the sportsbooks.

More on Base Rating

Nacional: 0.0%
Estrela: 30.0%

Bet Trends

Doing an analysis on the betting data, we project which team has which team has an edge.

More on Bet Trends

Nacional: 0.0%

Sharp Line

Our proprietary formula predicting which direction the line will move.

More on Sharp Line

Nacional: 40.0%
Estrela: 0.0%

Latest ML

Steam Move

A quick and uniform line move across every sportsbook. Usually caused by an injury or deep-pocketed sharp bettor.

More on Steam Move

No Steam Moves On Nacional ML
No Steam Moves On Estrela ML

Over/Under Analysis

Implied Margin

Using the best lines from multiple sportsbooks, this would be the % take from the consensus sportsbook if bets were even on each side.

More on Implied Margin
:4.3%
 Open LineHeritageBovadaBetOnlineYouWagerSportsBettingBest Line

No-Vig Odds

Using a market maker sportsbook, this is what the line would be if there was no vigorish (sportsbook fee) in the price.

More on No-Vig Odds
Overo2¼-115-o2¼-110o2¼-109o2¼-109o2¼-109o2¼-109o2¼+101
Underu2¼-105-u2¼-110u2¼-111u2¼-111u2¼-111u2¼-110u2¼-101
 Open LineSouth PointCircaWynnStationsWestgateBest Line

No-Vig Odds

Using a market maker sportsbook, this is what the line would be if there was no vigorish (sportsbook fee) in the price.

More on No-Vig Odds
Over-----o2¼+101
Under-----u2¼-101

Overall

Bet Value Inactive
Over: 10.0%
Bet Value Inactive
Under: 0.0%

Base Rating

Our analytical projection of the match in relation to the implied probability to win from the sportsbooks.

More on Base Rating

Over: 10.0%
Under: 0.0%

Bet Trends

Doing an analysis on the betting data, we project which team has which team has an edge.

More on Bet Trends

Over: 0.0%

Sharp Line

Our proprietary formula predicting which direction the line will move.

More on Sharp Line

Over: 0.0%
Under: 0.0%

Latest O/U

Steam Move

A quick and uniform line move across every sportsbook. Usually caused by an injury or deep-pocketed sharp bettor.

More on Steam Move

The Over moved from o2¼-115 to o2½+102
No Steam Moves On Under

Goal Props

Both Teams to Score
Yes48.2%
 
No51.8%

Total Goals

0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
Exact Goals Scored - Overall
Exactly 08.38%
Exactly 225.76%
Exactly 413.19%
Exactly 62.70%
Exactly 80.30%
 
Exactly 120.78%
Exactly 321.28%
Exactly 56.54%
Exactly 70.96%
Exact Goals Scored - Nacional
Exactly 038.28%
Exactly 136.76%
Exactly 217.65%
Exactly 35.65%
Exactly 41.36%
Exactly 50.26%
Exact Goals Scored - Estrela
Exactly 021.90%
Exactly 133.26%
Exactly 225.26%
Exactly 312.79%
Exactly 44.85%
Exactly 51.47%
Exactly 60.37%
Exact Goals Scored - First Half
Exactly 031.73%
Exactly 220.90%
Exactly 42.30%
Exactly 60.10%
 
Exactly 136.42%
Exactly 38.00%
Exactly 50.53%
Exact Goals Scored - First Half - Nacional
Exactly 064.11%
Exactly 128.50%
Exactly 26.34%
Exactly 30.94%
Exactly 40.10%
Exact Goals Scored - First Half - Estrela
Exactly 049.50%
Exactly 134.81%
Exactly 212.24%
Exactly 32.87%
Exactly 40.50%

Alternate Props

Spread

Nacional
Wins by 2+ goals8.31%
Wins by 3+ goals2.19%
Wins by 4+ goals0.44%
Estrela
Wins by 2+ goals25.58%
Wins by 3+ goals10.27%
Wins by 4+ goals3.31%
Wins by 5+ goals0.84%
Wins by 6+ goals0.14%

Exact Winning Margin

Nacional
Estrela
4
3
2
1
D
1
2
3
4
5
6
Nacional
Wins by 1 goal15.53%
Wins by 2 goals6.12%
Wins by 3 goals1.75%
Wins by 4 goals0.38%
Estrela
Wins by 1 goal24.57%
Wins by 2 goals15.31%
Wins by 3 goals6.96%
Wins by 4 goals2.47%
Wins by 5 goals0.70%
Wins by 6 goals0.14%

Total Goals Over/Under

OverUnder
0.591.62%8.38%
1.570.84%29.16%
2.545.08%54.92%
3.523.80%76.20%
4.510.60%89.40%
5.54.06%95.94%
6.51.36%98.64%

Total Goals Nacional Over/Under

OverUnder
0.561.72%38.28%
1.524.96%75.04%
2.57.31%92.69%
3.51.66%98.34%

Total Goals Estrela Over/Under

OverUnder
0.578.10%21.90%
1.544.84%55.16%
2.519.59%80.41%
3.56.80%93.20%
4.51.95%98.05%

Total Goals - First Half Over/Under

OverUnder
0.568.27%31.73%
1.531.84%68.16%
2.510.94%89.06%
3.52.94%97.06%

Score Props

Correct Score

Nacional
Estrela
Score012345
0
8.38%
12.73%
9.67%
4.89%
1.86%
0.56%
1
8.05%
12.22%
9.28%
4.70%
1.78%
0.54%
2
3.86%
5.87%
4.46%
2.26%
0.86%
0.26%
3
1.24%
1.88%
1.43%
0.72%
0.27%
0.08%
4
0.30%
0.45%
0.34%
0.17%
0.07%
0.02%
Nacional
1-08.05%
2-03.86%
2-15.87%
3-01.24%
3-11.88%
3-21.43%
4-00.30%
4-10.45%
4-20.34%
4-30.17%
Draw
0-08.38%
1-112.22%
2-24.46%
3-30.72%
Estrela
0-112.73%
0-29.67%
1-29.28%
0-34.89%
1-34.70%
2-32.26%
0-41.86%
1-41.78%
2-40.86%
3-40.27%
0-50.56%
1-50.54%
2-50.26%

Correct Score - First Half

Nacional
Estrela
Score01234
0
31.73%
22.31%
7.85%
1.84%
0.32%
1
14.11%
9.92%
3.49%
0.82%
0.14%
2
3.14%
2.21%
0.78%
0.18%
0.03%
3
0.46%
0.33%
0.11%
0.03%
0.00%
Nacional
1-014.11%
2-03.14%
2-12.21%
3-00.46%
3-10.33%
3-20.11%
Draw
0-031.73%
1-19.92%
2-20.78%
Estrela
0-122.31%
0-27.85%
1-23.49%
0-31.84%
1-30.82%
2-30.18%
0-40.32%
1-40.14%
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