Excelsior at NEC Nijmegen

Updated

Excelsior

16.5%22.7%60.8%
WinDrawNEC Nijmegen Win
0.81Projected Goals 1.80
4Final Score 3

NEC Nijmegen

Last 5 Games

Excelsior
Money Line
L 2-3 at Volendam+335
W 0-3 vs Fortuna Sittard-110
T 0-0 at Heerenveen+490
L 2-0 vs Feyenoord+975
T 0-0 at Vitesse+580
NEC Nijmegen
Money Line
T 1-1 at Fortuna Sittard+150
L 3-0 vs AZ Alkmaar+340
L 0-4 at Twente+540
L 3-2 vs Heerenveen+110
L 4-1 vs Vitesse+120

Money Line Analysis

Implied Margin

Using the best lines from multiple sportsbooks, this would be the % take from the consensus sportsbook if bets were even on each side.

More on Implied Margin
:-0.5%

Implied Margin

Using the best lines from multiple sportsbooks, this would be the % take from the consensus sportsbook if bets were even on each side.

More on Implied Margin
:4.9%
 Open LineHeritageBovadaBetOnlineYouWagerSportsBettingBest Line

No-Vig Odds

Using a market maker sportsbook, this is what the line would be if there was no vigorish (sportsbook fee) in the price.

More on No-Vig Odds
Excelsior+465+626+575+630+491+630+630+666.1
NEC Nijmegen-173-222-240-215-182-215-182-186.0
Draw+337+370+360+335+340+335+370+356.5
 Open LineSouth PointCircaCaesarsStationsWestgateBest Line

No-Vig Odds

Using a market maker sportsbook, this is what the line would be if there was no vigorish (sportsbook fee) in the price.

More on No-Vig Odds
Excelsior+485----+475+475+666.1
NEC Nijmegen-190-----190-190-186.0
Draw+345----+350+350+356.5

Overall

Bet Value Inactive
Excelsior: 0.0%
Bet Value Inactive
NEC Nijmegen: 20.0%

Base Rating

Our analytical projection of the match in relation to the implied probability to win from the sportsbooks.

More on Base Rating

Excelsior: 20.0%
NEC Nijmegen: 0.0%

Bet Trends

Doing an analysis on the betting data, we project which team has which team has an edge.

More on Bet Trends

Excelsior: 0.0%

Sharp Line

Our proprietary formula predicting which direction the line will move.

More on Sharp Line

Excelsior: 0.0%
NEC Nijmegen: 40.0%

Latest ML

Steam Move

A quick and uniform line move across every sportsbook. Usually caused by an injury or deep-pocketed sharp bettor.

More on Steam Move

Excelsior ML moved from +532 to +491
NEC Nijmegen ML moved from -172 to -188

Overall

Bet Value Inactive
Excelsior: 0.0%
Bet Value Inactive
NEC Nijmegen: 0.0%

Base Rating

Our analytical projection of the match in relation to the implied probability to win from the sportsbooks.

More on Base Rating

Excelsior: 10.0%
NEC Nijmegen: 0.0%

Bet Trends

Doing an analysis on the betting data, we project which team has which team has an edge.

More on Bet Trends

Excelsior: 0.0%

Sharp Line

Our proprietary formula predicting which direction the line will move.

More on Sharp Line

Excelsior: 0.0%
NEC Nijmegen: 10.0%

Latest ML

Steam Move

A quick and uniform line move across every sportsbook. Usually caused by an injury or deep-pocketed sharp bettor.

More on Steam Move

Excelsior ML moved from +485 to +465
No Steam Moves On NEC Nijmegen ML

Over/Under Analysis

Implied Margin

Using the best lines from multiple sportsbooks, this would be the % take from the consensus sportsbook if bets were even on each side.

More on Implied Margin
:-0.5%
 Open LineHeritageBovadaBetOnlineYouWagerSportsBettingBest Line

No-Vig Odds

Using a market maker sportsbook, this is what the line would be if there was no vigorish (sportsbook fee) in the price.

More on No-Vig Odds
Overo3-106o3-111o3-112o3-125o3-103o3-125o3-103o3-114
Underu3-110u3-105u3-108u3+105u3-113u3+105u3+105u3+114
 Open LineSouth PointCircaCaesarsStationsWestgateBest Line

No-Vig Odds

Using a market maker sportsbook, this is what the line would be if there was no vigorish (sportsbook fee) in the price.

More on No-Vig Odds
Over-----o3-114
Under-----u3+114

Overall

Bet Value Inactive
Over: 0.0%
Bet Value Inactive
Under: 10.0%

Base Rating

Our analytical projection of the match in relation to the implied probability to win from the sportsbooks.

More on Base Rating

Over: 0.0%
Under: 10.0%

Bet Trends

Doing an analysis on the betting data, we project which team has which team has an edge.

More on Bet Trends

Over: 0.0%

Sharp Line

Our proprietary formula predicting which direction the line will move.

More on Sharp Line

Over: 0.0%
Under: 0.0%

Latest O/U

Steam Move

A quick and uniform line move across every sportsbook. Usually caused by an injury or deep-pocketed sharp bettor.

More on Steam Move

No Steam Moves On Over
No Steam Moves On Under

Goal Props

Both Teams to Score
Yes46.4%
 
No53.6%

Total Goals

0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
Exact Goals Scored - Overall
Exactly 07.35%
Exactly 225.05%
Exactly 414.22%
Exactly 63.23%
Exactly 80.39%
 
Exactly 119.19%
Exactly 321.79%
Exactly 57.42%
Exactly 71.20%
Exactly 90.11%
Exact Goals Scored - Excelsior
Exactly 044.40%
Exactly 136.05%
Exactly 214.64%
Exactly 33.96%
Exactly 40.80%
Exactly 50.13%
Exact Goals Scored - NEC Nijmegen
Exactly 016.56%
Exactly 129.78%
Exactly 226.77%
Exactly 316.05%
Exactly 47.21%
Exactly 52.59%
Exactly 60.78%
Exactly 70.20%
Exact Goals Scored - First Half
Exactly 029.87%
Exactly 221.81%
Exactly 42.65%
Exactly 60.13%
 
Exactly 136.09%
Exactly 38.78%
Exactly 50.64%
Exact Goals Scored - First Half - Excelsior
Exactly 068.67%
Exactly 125.81%
Exactly 24.85%
Exactly 30.61%
Exact Goals Scored - First Half - NEC Nijmegen
Exactly 043.49%
Exactly 136.21%
Exactly 215.07%
Exactly 34.18%
Exactly 40.87%
Exactly 50.14%

Alternate Props

Spread

Excelsior
Wins by 2+ goals4.96%
Wins by 3+ goals1.12%
Wins by 4+ goals0.19%
NEC Nijmegen
Wins by 2+ goals35.20%
Wins by 3+ goals16.37%
Wins by 4+ goals6.23%
Wins by 5+ goals1.97%
Wins by 6+ goals0.51%

Exact Winning Margin

Excelsior
NEC Nijmegen
4
3
2
1
D
1
2
3
4
5
6
Excelsior
Wins by 1 goal11.53%
Wins by 2 goals3.84%
Wins by 3 goals0.93%
Wins by 4 goals0.17%
NEC Nijmegen
Wins by 1 goal25.53%
Wins by 2 goals18.84%
Wins by 3 goals10.14%
Wins by 4 goals4.26%
Wins by 5 goals1.46%
Wins by 6 goals0.42%

Total Goals Over/Under

OverUnder
0.592.65%7.35%
1.573.46%26.54%
2.548.41%51.59%
3.526.62%73.38%
4.512.40%87.60%
5.54.98%95.02%
6.51.75%98.25%

Total Goals Excelsior Over/Under

OverUnder
0.555.60%44.40%
1.519.55%80.45%
2.54.92%95.08%

Total Goals NEC Nijmegen Over/Under

OverUnder
0.583.44%16.56%
1.553.66%46.34%
2.526.89%73.11%
3.510.84%89.16%
4.53.63%96.37%
5.51.03%98.97%

Total Goals - First Half Over/Under

OverUnder
0.570.13%29.87%
1.534.04%65.96%
2.512.24%87.76%
3.53.45%96.55%

Score Props

Correct Score

Excelsior
NEC Nijmegen
Score012345
0
7.35%
13.22%
11.89%
7.12%
3.20%
1.15%
1
5.97%
10.73%
9.65%
5.79%
2.60%
0.94%
2
2.42%
4.36%
3.92%
2.35%
1.06%
0.38%
3
0.66%
1.18%
1.06%
0.64%
0.29%
0.10%
4
0.13%
0.24%
0.22%
0.13%
0.06%
0.02%
Excelsior
1-05.97%
2-02.42%
2-14.36%
3-00.66%
3-11.18%
3-21.06%
4-00.13%
4-10.24%
4-20.22%
4-30.13%
Draw
0-07.35%
1-110.73%
2-23.92%
3-30.64%
NEC Nijmegen
0-113.22%
0-211.89%
1-29.65%
0-37.12%
1-35.79%
2-32.35%
0-43.20%
1-42.60%
2-41.06%
3-40.29%
0-51.15%
1-50.94%
2-50.38%
3-50.10%

Correct Score - First Half

Excelsior
NEC Nijmegen
Score01234
0
29.87%
24.86%
10.35%
2.87%
0.60%
1
11.23%
9.35%
3.89%
1.08%
0.22%
2
2.11%
1.76%
0.73%
0.20%
0.04%
3
0.26%
0.22%
0.09%
0.03%
0.01%
Excelsior
1-011.23%
2-02.11%
2-11.76%
3-00.26%
3-10.22%
Draw
0-029.87%
1-19.35%
2-20.73%
NEC Nijmegen
0-124.86%
0-210.35%
1-23.89%
0-32.87%
1-31.08%
2-30.20%
0-40.60%
1-40.22%
Sparta R'dam at Zwolle
Fortuna Sittard at Feyenoord