Ajax at Excelsior

Updated

Ajax

86.7%9.4%3.8%
Ajax WinDrawWin
3.06Projected Goals 0.54
2Final Score 2

Excelsior

Last 5 Games

Ajax
Money Line
W 1-4 vs Heracles Almelo-475
L 1-3 at Twente+105
W 1-3 vs Utrecht-340
T 0-0 vs AZ Alkmaar-155
L 0-3 at PSV Eindhoven+230
Excelsior
Money Line
W 4-3 at NEC Nijmegen+475
L 2-3 at Volendam+335
W 0-3 vs Fortuna Sittard-110
T 0-0 at Heerenveen+490
L 2-0 vs Feyenoord+975

Money Line Analysis

Implied Margin

Using the best lines from multiple sportsbooks, this would be the % take from the consensus sportsbook if bets were even on each side.

More on Implied Margin
:
2.4%

Implied Margin

Using the best lines from multiple sportsbooks, this would be the % take from the consensus sportsbook if bets were even on each side.

More on Implied Margin
:
5.1%
 Open LineHeritageBovadaBetOnlineYouWagerSportsBettingBest Line

No-Vig Odds

Using a market maker sportsbook, this is what the line would be if there was no vigorish (sportsbook fee) in the price.

More on No-Vig Odds
Ajax-362-315-325-360-326-360-315-295.0
Excelsior+889+814+700+850+799+850+850+895.5
Draw+544+483+460+525+504+525+525+554.9
 Open LineSouth PointCircaCaesarsStationsWestgateBest Line

No-Vig Odds

Using a market maker sportsbook, this is what the line would be if there was no vigorish (sportsbook fee) in the price.

More on No-Vig Odds
Ajax-410-----400-400-295.0
Excelsior+875----+875+875+895.5
Draw+600----+560+560+554.9

Overall

Bet Value Inactive
Ajax: 30.0%
Bet Value Inactive
Excelsior: 0.0%

Base Rating

Our analytical projection of the match in relation to the implied probability to win from the sportsbooks.

More on Base Rating

Ajax: 30.0%
Excelsior: 0.0%

Bet Trends

Doing an analysis on the betting data, we project which team has which team has an edge.

More on Bet Trends

Sharp Line

Our proprietary formula predicting which direction the line will move.

More on Sharp Line

Ajax: 0.0%
Excelsior: 0.0%

Latest ML

Steam Move

A quick and uniform line move across every sportsbook. Usually caused by an injury or deep-pocketed sharp bettor.

More on Steam Move

Ajax ML moved from -325 to -335
Excelsior ML moved from +950 to +850

Overall

Bet Value Inactive
Ajax: 20.0%
Bet Value Inactive
Excelsior: 0.0%

Base Rating

Our analytical projection of the match in relation to the implied probability to win from the sportsbooks.

More on Base Rating

Ajax: 30.0%
Excelsior: 0.0%

Bet Trends

Doing an analysis on the betting data, we project which team has which team has an edge.

More on Bet Trends

Sharp Line

Our proprietary formula predicting which direction the line will move.

More on Sharp Line

Ajax: 0.0%
Excelsior: 10.0%

Latest ML

Steam Move

A quick and uniform line move across every sportsbook. Usually caused by an injury or deep-pocketed sharp bettor.

More on Steam Move

Ajax ML moved from -410 to -425
Excelsior ML moved from +850 to +825

Over/Under Analysis

Implied Margin

Using the best lines from multiple sportsbooks, this would be the % take from the consensus sportsbook if bets were even on each side.

More on Implied Margin
:
1.9%
 Open LineHeritageBovadaBetOnlineYouWagerSportsBettingBest Line

No-Vig Odds

Using a market maker sportsbook, this is what the line would be if there was no vigorish (sportsbook fee) in the price.

More on No-Vig Odds
Overo3½-122o3½-108o3½-105o3½-107o3½-113o3½-107o3½-105o3½+103
Underu3½+104u3½-108u3½-115u3½-113u3½-103u3½-113u3½-103u3½-103
 Open LineSouth PointCircaCaesarsStationsWestgateBest Line

No-Vig Odds

Using a market maker sportsbook, this is what the line would be if there was no vigorish (sportsbook fee) in the price.

More on No-Vig Odds
Over-----o3½+103
Under-----u3½-103

Overall

Bet Value Inactive
Over: 0.0%
Bet Value Inactive
Under: 0.0%

Base Rating

Our analytical projection of the match in relation to the implied probability to win from the sportsbooks.

More on Base Rating

Over: 0.0%
Under: 0.0%

Bet Trends

Doing an analysis on the betting data, we project which team has which team has an edge.

More on Bet Trends

Sharp Line

Our proprietary formula predicting which direction the line will move.

More on Sharp Line

Over: 0.0%
Under: 0.0%

Latest O/U

Steam Move

A quick and uniform line move across every sportsbook. Usually caused by an injury or deep-pocketed sharp bettor.

More on Steam Move

No Steam Moves On Over
The Under moved from u3¾-122 to u3½-113

Goal Props

Both Teams to Score
Yes39.5%
 
No60.5%

Total Goals

0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
Exact Goals Scored - Overall
Exactly 02.74%
Exactly 217.72%
Exactly 419.12%
Exactly 68.25%
Exactly 81.91%
Exactly 100.27%
 
Exactly 19.85%
Exactly 321.25%
Exactly 513.76%
Exactly 74.24%
Exactly 90.76%
Exact Goals Scored - Ajax
Exactly 04.67%
Exactly 114.32%
Exactly 221.93%
Exactly 322.39%
Exactly 417.15%
Exactly 510.51%
Exactly 65.36%
Exactly 72.35%
Exactly 80.90%
Exactly 90.31%
Exact Goals Scored - Excelsior
Exactly 058.56%
Exactly 131.34%
Exactly 28.38%
Exactly 31.50%
Exactly 40.20%
Exact Goals Scored - First Half
Exactly 018.90%
Exactly 226.23%
Exactly 46.07%
Exactly 60.56%
 
Exactly 131.49%
Exactly 314.57%
Exactly 52.02%
Exactly 70.13%
Exact Goals Scored - First Half - Ajax
Exactly 024.21%
Exactly 134.34%
Exactly 224.35%
Exactly 311.51%
Exactly 44.08%
Exactly 51.16%
Exactly 60.27%
Exact Goals Scored - First Half - Excelsior
Exactly 078.05%
Exactly 119.34%
Exactly 22.40%
Exactly 30.20%

Alternate Props

Spread

Ajax
Wins by 2+ goals69.21%
Wins by 3+ goals47.75%
Wins by 4+ goals28.30%
Wins by 5+ goals14.48%
Excelsior
Wins by 2+ goals0.76%

Exact Winning Margin

Ajax
Excelsior
5
4
3
2
1
D
1
2
Ajax
Wins by 1 goal17.41%
Wins by 2 goals21.46%
Wins by 3 goals19.45%
Wins by 4 goals13.82%
Wins by 5 goals8.04%
Excelsior
Wins by 1 goal3.04%
Wins by 2 goals0.65%

Total Goals Over/Under

OverUnder
0.597.26%2.74%
1.587.42%12.58%
2.569.70%30.30%
3.548.45%51.55%
4.529.33%70.67%
5.515.57%84.43%
6.57.31%92.69%
7.53.07%96.93%
8.51.16%98.84%

Total Goals Ajax Over/Under

OverUnder
0.595.33%4.67%
1.581.01%18.99%
2.559.09%40.91%
3.536.70%63.30%
4.519.55%80.45%
5.59.04%90.96%
6.53.68%96.32%
7.51.33%98.67%

Total Goals Excelsior Over/Under

OverUnder
0.541.44%58.56%
1.510.10%89.90%
2.51.72%98.28%

Total Goals - First Half Over/Under

OverUnder
0.581.10%18.90%
1.549.62%50.38%
2.523.39%76.61%
3.58.82%91.18%
4.52.75%97.25%

Score Props

Correct Score

Ajax
Excelsior
Score012
0
2.74%
1.46%
0.39%
1
8.38%
4.49%
1.20%
2
12.84%
6.87%
1.84%
3
13.11%
7.02%
1.88%
4
10.04%
5.37%
1.44%
5
6.15%
3.29%
0.88%
Ajax
1-08.38%
2-012.84%
2-16.87%
3-013.11%
3-17.02%
3-21.88%
4-010.04%
4-15.37%
4-21.44%
4-30.26%
5-06.15%
5-13.29%
5-20.88%
5-30.16%
Draw
0-02.74%
1-14.49%
2-21.84%
3-30.33%
Excelsior
0-11.46%
0-20.39%
1-21.20%

Correct Score - First Half

Ajax
Excelsior
Score012
0
18.90%
4.68%
0.58%
1
26.80%
6.64%
0.82%
2
19.01%
4.71%
0.58%
3
8.99%
2.23%
0.28%
4
3.19%
0.79%
0.10%
5
0.90%
0.22%
0.03%
6
0.21%
0.05%
0.01%
Ajax
1-026.80%
2-019.01%
2-14.71%
3-08.99%
3-12.23%
3-20.28%
4-03.19%
4-10.79%
5-00.90%
5-10.22%
6-00.21%
Draw
0-018.90%
1-16.64%
2-20.58%
Excelsior
0-14.68%
0-20.58%
1-20.82%